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Bend, OR housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	Change	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$347	$360	$373	$383		2.4%	3.7%	3.6%	2.7%
Active Listing Count	1,030	1,058	1,367	1,880		86.3%	2.7%	29.2%	37.5%
Median Days on Market	92	85	98	99		9.5%	-7.6%	15.3%	1%
Share of listings with price increase	1.1%	1.3%	1.3%	1.1%
Share of listings with price decrease	17.3%	16.7%	16.3%	19.5%

* last available value


Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Bend, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area – Overview

• Bend MSA consists of Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson counties in Central Oregon.
• Largest city: Bend; other key cities/towns: Redmond, Prineville, Madras, Sisters, La Pine, smaller unincorporated communities.
• MSA population about 260k – 265k, one of the fastest‑growing regions in Oregon and a leading state growth engine.
• Geography: High‑desert plateau with Deschutes River, Cascade Mountains to the west, agricultural valleys and rangeland to the north and east.
• Key geographic sub‑areas for housing: Bend (Westside vs Eastside vs Southeast), Redmond, Sisters Country, La Pine/South County, Prineville/Crook County, Madras/Jefferson County communities.

Cities, Towns, Key Areas – Housing‑Relevant Snapshot

Area	City/town	Population (approx.)	Density (people/sq mi, approx.)	Income level	Quality of schools (GreatSchools range, approx.)	Crime level	Property tax (typical effective % of value)	Personal income tax (local)	Comments
Central city – Bend	Bend	~105k – 110k	~3,000	High (median HH income high‑80k to low‑90k)	Elementary/middle mostly 6–8; some 4–5 and a few 8–9	Moderate overall; higher property crime than violent crime; tourist‑driven theft risk	~0.9 – 1.1% (varies by levy/urban renewal)	None	Most expensive housing; strong amenities, jobs, in‑migration; Westside premium submarket
Regional hub – Redmond	Redmond	~38k – 40k	~2,000	Middle (median income below Bend but rising quickly)	Many schools 5–7; some 4–6, a few 7–8	Similar or slightly higher crime than Bend on a per‑capita basis; improving in newer subdivisions	~1.0 – 1.2%	None	Airport, industrial/commercial growth; relatively affordable; strong commuter market to Bend
Deschutes County – Westside resort/rural	Sisters & nearby rural	Sisters city ~3k; area ~10k	City ~1,500; rural very low	High (second‑home and telecommuter influence)	Schools often 7–9; strong small‑district reputation	Low to moderate; small‑town profile	~0.9 – 1.1%	None	Premium mountain‑town branding; constrained land; high prices per SF; strong lifestyle demand
Deschutes County – South County	La Pine & south rural	La Pine ~2.5k; area ~10k	Low	Low to middle	Schools often 4–6	Moderate; more rural property crime; low violent crime	~0.9 – 1.1%	None	Manufactured homes, larger lots, lower prices; more weather risk (snow), septic reliance
Crook County core	Prineville	~11k – 12k	~1,000	Low to middle (below Deschutes)	Schools often 4–6; some 6–7	Moderate; mix of rural and small‑city issues	~0.9 – 1.1%	None	Data centers, outdoor rec access; cheaper than Bend/Redmond; more cyclical employment base
Jefferson County core	Madras	~7k – 8k	~1,300	Low (one of lower‑income areas in MSA)	Schools often 3–6	Moderate; some social and economic stress indicators above regional average	~0.9 – 1.1%	None	Agriculture‑heavy economy; lower prices; slower appreciation historically
Jefferson County – Warm Springs	Warm Springs (reservation)	~3k	Low	Low	Schools often 2–5	Higher reported crime rates; significant poverty and infrastructure needs	~0.9 – 1.0% where applicable; much land tribal trust	None	Special ownership rules on tribal land; niche, complex investment environment
Deschutes County – rural & unincorporated	Tumalo, Terrebonne, Alfalfa, etc.	Each area small (hundreds to low thousands)	Very low	Middle to high (equity buyers, acreage properties)	Zoned to Bend or Redmond schools; usually 6–8	Low to moderate; rural property crime	~0.8 – 1.0%	None	Acreage and hobby‑farm demand; water rights constraints; strong lifestyle appeal

Citizens – Income and Education Profile

• Income
  • MSA anchored by Bend, where median household income is in the high‑$80k range and rising.
  • Region shows increasing income inequality: strong influx of high‑earning remote workers, professionals, and retirees vs service‑sector and seasonal workers struggling with housing costs.
  • Deschutes County notably higher incomes than Crook and Jefferson; rural and tribal communities at the bottom of the distribution.
  • High share of households earning $100k+ in Bend, Sisters, and certain rural acreage areas.
• Education
  • Above‑average share of adults with bachelor’s degree or higher in Bend and Sisters relative to Oregon statewide.
  • Redmond moderate educational attainment, improving as in‑migrants arrive; Crook and Jefferson significantly lower college‑degree rates.
  • Presence of OSU‑Cascades campus in Bend and nearby community‑college system supports an educated workforce and draws students/young professionals.
  • Occupational mix skewed toward knowledge work, health care, education, and professional services in Bend; trades, manufacturing, agriculture in outlying counties.

Key Economic Sectors

• Tourism and outdoor recreation
  • Major driver: skiing, mountain biking, fishing, river recreation, golf, resorts (Sunriver, Mt. Bachelor area), short‑term rentals.
  • Supports hospitality, retail, food service, guiding/outfitting, and associated construction.
• Professional services and remote work
  • Large share of in‑migrants are remote tech, finance, creative, and consulting workers bringing high incomes not tied to local employers.
  • Co‑working spaces and small offices concentrated in Bend and, to a lesser degree, Sisters and Redmond.
• Health care and social assistance
  • Hospitals and clinics in Bend and Redmond serve the wider region; aging population boosts health‑care employment.
  • Stable, relatively high‑wage sector, attracting specialized labor.
• Construction and real estate
  • Very large share of regional employment tied to homebuilding, remodeling, infrastructure, property management, and real‑estate services.
  • Highly cyclical, sensitive to interest rates and in‑migration trends.
• Manufacturing and industrial
  • Light manufacturing, aviation/aerospace, and distribution particularly around Redmond’s industrial areas.
  • Prineville hosts significant data center investment, creating an industrial tax base and some specialized jobs.
• Agriculture and natural resources
  • Strong in Jefferson County (Madras area), Crook County, and rural Deschutes: crops, hay, livestock, seed, and related processing.
  • Vulnerable to water availability, commodity prices, and climate trends.

Housing Market – Supply Drivers

• Zoning and land supply
  • All three counties are governed by Oregon statewide land‑use law, which tightly controls expansion beyond Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs).
  • Bend’s UGB expansion has been contentious and slow, limiting greenfield land and pushing up prices within the boundary.
  • Redmond, Prineville, and Madras generally have relatively more available land and lower land‑cost base, though infrastructure funding can lag.
  • Single‑family zoning still dominates many neighborhoods, with gradual but uneven move toward more “missing‑middle” housing types and higher densities along corridors.
• Regulatory strictness and permitting
  • Bend has relatively complex design standards and public process, adding time and soft costs to projects, especially infill and multifamily.
  • Outlying cities often market themselves as easier and faster to build in, though they face smaller markets and less depth in construction services.
  • State‑level requirements on infrastructure, environmental rules, and wildfire‑resilience standards add cost, particularly in forest‑interface areas (Sisters, West/South Bend, La Pine).
• Construction workforce and input costs
  • Chronic shortage of skilled trades; competition for labor with Portland, other Oregon markets, and large public projects.
  • High wages for construction workers, plus elevated materials/transportation costs to this interior location, keep per‑unit cost high.
  • Seasonality (winter weather, wildfire smoke) compresses build seasons and project schedules, further constraining annual output.
• Financing and developer capacity
  • Market dominated by a mix of regional and local builders; limited presence of very large national multifamily developers compared with big metros.
  • Higher interest rates have delayed or canceled some projects, particularly market‑rate apartments and higher‑end condos.
  • Public/affordable projects depend heavily on state and federal subsidies, which are competitive and slow.
• Infrastructure and utilities
  • Water, sewer, transportation, and school capacity can constrain the timing of new subdivisions.
  • In rural areas, reliance on wells, septic, and limited road networks caps density and adds per‑unit costs for new development.

Housing Market – Demand Drivers

• Migration and population growth
  • The Bend MSA has been one of Oregon’s fastest growing regions; recent years show roughly 7% metro growth over four years and a large share of statewide net growth.
  • Strong in‑migration from California, Washington, and Portland metro, often households with above‑average incomes and substantial home equity.
  • Net in‑migration far outpaces natural increase, so demand is highly sensitive to broader economic and remote‑work trends.
• Remote work and lifestyle appeal
  • Bend’s branding as an outdoor‑lifestyle city with good amenities, schools, and relative safety attracts high‑income knowledge workers who can live anywhere.
  • Sisters and rural Deschutes also benefit from work‑from‑anywhere buyers seeking acreage or small‑town charm.
  • Demand for larger homes with home‑office space and high‑speed internet remains elevated relative to pre‑pandemic norms.
• Tourism‑related housing demand
  • Short‑term rentals, second homes, and resort properties (Sunriver, Mt. Bachelor corridor, golf and destination communities) capture buyer demand not available to long‑term residents.
  • This reduces available long‑term rental stock, especially in desirable neighborhoods, and pushes up both rents and prices.
• Sectoral growth/decline
  • Growing: health care, remote tech/professional services, outdoor recreation/tourism, data centers (Prineville), airport‑adjacent industrial in Redmond.
  • Stable/modestly growing: local government/education, small business services.
  • Under pressure: lower‑margin agriculture (water, climate pressures), some local retail displaced by e‑commerce, and price‑sensitive tourism segments in downturns.
  • Overall employment growth supports sustained housing demand, particularly in Bend/Redmond corridor.
• Demographics
  • Growing retiree population seeking amenities, mild(ish) climate, and health care access.
  • Household sizes modest; strong demand for smaller single‑family homes, townhomes, and quality rentals rather than only large suburban homes.
  • Younger working families still attracted by perceived quality of life and schools but increasingly priced into Redmond and outlying towns.

Key Challenges in the Housing Market

• Affordability crisis
  • Home prices in Bend and Sisters far outpacing local wages in service and blue‑collar sectors.
  • High and rising rents in Bend and Redmond, with limited vacancy, put pressure on low‑ and moderate‑income households.
  • Workers in hospitality, retail, and public services increasingly commuting from outlying areas, adding transportation and congestion issues.
• Income and spatial inequality
  • Sharp divide between high‑income in‑migrants and long‑term residents or lower‑wage workers.
  • Concentration of high‑opportunity neighborhoods (West Bend, certain Bend suburbs, Sisters) vs lower‑opportunity areas (parts of Redmond, Madras, Warm Springs, South County).
  • Risk of displacement and loss of community character in older, centrally located Bend neighborhoods.
• Limited land and regulatory constraints
  • UGB boundaries and long planning timelines restrict rapid expansion during demand surges.
  • Neighborhood resistance to higher densities or multifamily projects slows supply response.
  • Wildfire risk zones and environmental constraints remove some otherwise buildable land from practical consideration.
• Infrastructure and climate risk
  • Need for major investments in transportation, water/sewer, and schools to support continued growth.
  • Wildfire, drought, and smoke events pose growing risks to both structures and desirability, particularly in forest‑interface and rural areas.
• Volatility from macro trends
  • Interest‑rate spikes quickly hit high‑priced markets; transaction volumes can drop sharply even if prices remain sticky.
  • Remote‑work policies by large employers and quality‑of‑life migration trends are uncertain over the long term, adding risk to demand forecasts.

Investment Potential by Area

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
Bend – Westside (Old Mill, NW Crossing, River West, etc.)	High (from already high base)	Moderate	Limited land supply; strong amenities; walkability; river access; top schools; high‑income buyers; strong second‑home demand; resilience to downturns but exposed to lifestyle/remote‑work shifts.
Bend – Eastside and emerging SE areas	High to medium‑high	Moderate	Relatively more new construction; somewhat lower prices than Westside; improving amenities; good access to highways and employment; upside as city grows east and south; some risk from oversupply in specific subdivisions in downturns.
Bend – Core infill and older neighborhoods	High (long‑term)	Moderate to high (policy risk)	Redevelopment and densification potential; walkable locations; zoning reforms could unlock value; counter‑risk from stricter rental/STR regulations, design standards, and neighborhood resistance.
Redmond (city)	High (relative value play)	Moderate	More affordable alternative to Bend; good highway and airport access; growing industrial and service base; strong household formation; potential for faster percentage gains from a lower price base.
Sisters and Sisters Country	High	Moderate to high	Boutique mountain‑town appeal; constrained land; high‑income second‑home and remote‑work demand; strong schools; wildfire and affordability issues plus cyclical second‑home market add risk.
La Pine and South Deschutes	Medium	Moderate	Lower entry prices; appeal to workforce and value‑oriented buyers; future upside if Bend/Redmond remain expensive; weather, infrastructure, and well/septic constraints temper long‑term appreciation.
Deschutes rural (Tumalo, Terrebonne, acreage)	High (niche)	High	Lifestyle acreage and view properties; scarcity of irrigated land and water rights; strong appeal to affluent buyers; illiquidity, regulatory changes on wells/water, and wildfire risk raise volatility.
Prineville (Crook County)	Medium to medium‑high	Moderate	Lower prices; data‑center tax base; proximity to Bend within commuting distance; upside if employment diversifies; risk from concentration in a few large industrial users and more cyclical local economy.
Madras and Jefferson County towns	Low to medium	Moderate to high	Agriculture‑centric economy; lower incomes; slower historic appreciation; potential upside from spillover and industrial projects, but water/climate constraints and limited amenities temper demand.
Warm Springs (tribal lands)	Low (conventional private investment)	High	Unique ownership/sovereignty framework; lower incomes; infrastructure needs; specialized opportunities mainly for tribal and mission‑driven partners rather than typical private investors.

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