Property Makler
Advanced analytics for residential real estate investing

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$201	$204	$203	$202	5.2%	1.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Active Listing Count	16,321	17,355	22,744	29,448	160.9%	6.3%	31.1%	29.5%
Median Days on Market	59	58	66	64	40.5%	-1.7%	13.8%	-3%
Share of listings with price increase	1.7%	1.3%	1.3%	1%
Share of listings with price decrease	16.8%	21.1%	23.7%	25.4%
Employees, thousands	4,181	4,264	4,324	4,299	4.8%	2%	1.4%	-0.6%
Permits	5,117	3,759	6,144	4,815	18.9%	-26.5%	63.4%	-21.6%

* last available value

Home prices

Short term housing supply drivers

Long term housing demand drivers

Long term housing supply drivers

Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Geographic overview of Dallas‑Fort Worth‑Arlington, TX MSA

Officially includes 11 counties: Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant.
2024 metro population roughly 8.3M–8.7M, making it the 4th largest U.S. metro.
Key sub‑regions:
- Urban core: Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Irving, Grand Prairie, Mesquite.
- North growth corridor: Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, Prosper, Celina, The Colony, Denton, Lewisville, Carrollton, Flower Mound.
- Mid‑cities / DFW Airport belt: Irving, Euless, Bedford, Hurst, Grapevine, Coppell, Southlake, Colleyville, North Richland Hills.
- Southern tier: DeSoto, Cedar Hill, Lancaster, Duncanville, Mansfield, Burleson, Waxahachie, Midlothian.
- Eastern tier: Rockwall, Rowlett, Wylie, Forney, Royse City, Mesquite, Garland.
- Western and exurban: Weatherford, Aledo, Azle, Hudson Oaks, Cleburne.

Area	City/town	Population (approx.)	Density (people/sq mi, approx.)	Income level	Quality of schools (GreatSchools range, typical)	Crime level (relative, metro = Medium)	Property tax (% of assessed value, typical)	Personal income tax	Comments
Urban core – East	Dallas	1.3M–1.4M	~3,900	Mixed – from low to high	2–9 (strong in North Dallas / Lakewood; weaker in some South/West areas)	Medium–High (hot spots in South & West; lower in North Dallas)	~2.3–2.8%	None (Texas has no local or state wage income tax)	Diverse housing stock; strong job base; significant neighborhood‑level variation in price, schools, and safety.
Urban core – West	Fort Worth	~1.0M	~2,700	Low‑to‑moderate, rising	3–8 (best in far West & Northwest suburbs inside city limits)	Medium (higher in older central/southeast areas)	~2.2–2.7%	None	Fast population growth; revitalizing downtown; relatively affordable vs Dallas and northern suburbs.
Urban core – Mid‑cities	Arlington	~410K	~4,000	Moderate	4–8 (strong pockets in south and southwest)	Medium	~2.2–2.6%	None	Home of major sports/entertainment venues; centrally located; strong rental demand.
North inner suburb	Plano	~300K	~4,000	High	8–10 (top‑tier ISDs, especially Plano ISD / Frisco ISD portions)	Low	~2.1–2.3%	None	Established corporate center; mature housing; strong owner‑occupancy; slower but stable appreciation.
North growth corridor	Frisco	~235K	~3,000	High	8–10 (Frisco ISD is consistently top‑rated)	Low	~2.1–2.3%	None	One of the fastest‑growing, high‑income suburbs; strong family demand; higher price point; new construction still active.
North growth corridor	McKinney	~220K	~3,000	Moderate‑High	7–10	Low‑Medium	~2.1–2.4%	None	Historic downtown plus large master‑planned communities; strong inflow of families; land for further expansion.
North growth corridor	Allen	~110K	~3,900	High	8–10	Low	~2.1–2.4%	None	Strong schools and retail; mostly built‑out; strong resale market, limited new supply.
Far‑north emerging	Prosper	~45K–50K	~1,800	High	8–10	Low	~2.1–2.5%	None	Rapid greenfield development; larger lots; high new‑build prices; strong long‑term growth potential.
Far‑north emerging	Celina	~45K	Low‑Medium density, expanding	Moderate‑High (trending up)	7–10 (improving with rapid growth)	Low	~2.1–2.6%	None	One of the fastest‑growing cities; heavy new subdivision & infrastructure build‑out; strong investor interest.
Northwest suburb	Denton	~160K	~1,500	Moderate	5–9 (varies by part of town)	Medium	~2.0–2.4%	None	University hub (UNT, TWU); strong rental/student market; continued northward sprawl.
Airport / Mid‑cities	Irving	~265K	~3,500	Moderate‑High	4–9 (best in Valley Ranch / Las Colinas)	Medium	~2.4–2.7%	None	Major corporate and office center near DFW Airport; strong multifamily and condo demand.
Airport / affluent suburb	Southlake	~32K	~1,800	Very High	9–10 (Carroll ISD highly ranked)	Very Low	~2.0–2.3%	None	Luxury housing, limited supply, strong school‑driven demand; high price floor.
East suburb	Garland	~250K	~4,000	Low‑Moderate	4–8	Medium	~2.5–2.9%	None	Older housing stock; more affordable; significant investor presence in SF rentals.
East / lake suburb	Rockwall	~55K	~2,400	Moderate‑High	7–10	Low	~2.3–2.7%	None	Lake Ray Hubbard access; strong owner‑occupancy; limited but steady new construction.
South inner suburb	Grand Prairie	~210K	~2,700	Moderate	5–8	Medium	~2.4–2.8%	None	Centrally located between Dallas & Fort Worth; solid workforce‑housing market.
South / southwest suburb	Mansfield	~80K	~2,000	Moderate‑High	7–10	Low‑Medium	~2.4–2.8%	None	Family‑oriented, good schools; active new construction; strong resale.
Exurban east / south	Forney	~40K–45K	Low‑Medium density	Moderate (rising)	6–9	Low‑Medium	~2.5–2.9%	None	Fast‑growing exurb with large master‑planned communities; more price‑accessible.

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Citizens: income and education

Income
- Metro median household income roughly mid‑$80Ks to high‑$80Ks; higher than U.S. median but varies strongly by sub‑area.
- High‑income clusters:
  - Collin County suburbs: Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, Prosper, Celina.
  - Affluent Tarrant/NE suburbs: Southlake, Colleyville, Keller, Grapevine.
  - Inner‑ring enclaves: Highland Park, University Park, parts of North Dallas and Lakewood.
- Lower‑income clusters:
  - Southern Dallas, parts of West Dallas, Pleasant Grove.
  - Older inner‑ring suburbs with aging housing stock (parts of Mesquite, Garland, Irving, Grand Prairie).
- Strong income growth driven by corporate relocations, tech and professional services expansion, and population inflow.
Education
- Share of adults with bachelor’s degree or higher is above U.S. average, especially in northern and northwestern suburbs.
- Highest tertiary‑education attainment:
  - Plano, Frisco, Allen, McKinney, Southlake, Colleyville, Coppell, Flower Mound.
  - Inner Dallas neighborhoods near major universities and employment centers (SMU/University Park, Uptown, Downtown, Las Colinas corridor in Irving).
- Lower educational attainment rates in some southern and western neighborhoods, but improving with regional economic upskilling.
- Large student population due to multiple universities: UT Dallas, UT Arlington, University of North Texas, Texas Woman’s University, SMU, TCU and others.

Key economic sectors

Corporate headquarters & professional services
- Large base of Fortune 500 and regional HQs across finance, insurance, telecom, tech, consumer brands, and industrials.
- Concentrated in Dallas (Downtown/uptown), Plano/Frisco (Legacy West/Granite Park), Irving/Las Colinas, and Richardson’s Telecom Corridor.
Technology & telecommunications
- Significant cluster of IT, telecom, data centers, and software companies; growing mix of start‑ups and scale‑ups in northern suburbs.
Transportation, logistics & trade
- Anchored by DFW International Airport and Dallas Love Field.
- Major distribution and logistics hubs along I‑35, I‑20, I‑30, I‑45, and Alliance Airport area in North Fort Worth.
Manufacturing & industrial
- Diverse base in aerospace, electronics, food processing, building materials, and light industrial.
- Concentrated in Arlington–Grand Prairie–Irving belt, South Dallas, and Alliance area.
Healthcare & life sciences
- Large networks of hospitals and specialty centers in Dallas, Fort Worth, Plano, Arlington, Irving, and major suburbs.
- Employs a substantial share of the regional workforce; ongoing facility expansion in growth corridors.
Education & government
- Multiple universities, community colleges, and ISDs are among the largest local employers.
Retail, hospitality, sports & entertainment
- Major attractions and stadiums (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, NASCAR, college sports) drive hospitality and tourism‑related demand.
- Significant concentration of regional malls and lifestyle centers in Plano, Frisco, Arlington, Grapevine, and North Dallas.

Housing market – supply drivers

Zoning and land availability
- Compared with coastal metros, zoning is relatively permissive, especially in outer counties (Collin, Denton, Kaufman, Johnson, Parker, Ellis).
- Large supply of greenfield land supports continued detached single‑family and master‑planned community development.
- Inner‑core cities (Dallas, Fort Worth, inner suburbs) show:
  - Growing use of townhomes, small‑lot SF, and mid‑rise multifamily infill.
  - Selective up‑zoning around transit, employment clusters, and aging commercial corridors.
Regulatory strictness
- Permitting and entitlement processes are moderate, generally faster and less restrictive than many large U.S. metros.
- Variation by jurisdiction: some high‑income suburbs (e.g., Southlake, parts of Collin County) apply stricter development standards, lot sizes, and design guidelines.
Construction workforce and costs
- Large regional construction labor pool due to continuous building cycle.
- Costs have risen notably from materials inflation, labor shortages in skilled trades, and higher financing costs, but remain lower than on coasts.
- Builders have adjusted product (smaller lots, denser townhomes, more attached units) to preserve price points under cost pressure.
Infrastructure and utilities
- Substantial highway and arterial expansions facilitate outward growth, especially north and east.
- Some emerging bottlenecks (water, wastewater, arterial capacity) in the fastest‑growing exurbs can slow plats and building in specific submarkets.
Interest rates and developer financing
- Higher rates have:
  - Softened some for‑sale absorption in 2023–2024.
  - Delayed or phased some large multifamily and build‑for‑rent projects.
- Nonetheless, strong expectations of population growth sustain long‑term pipeline planning.
Type of new supply
- Single‑family:
  - Dominant in outer rings: Celina, Prosper, Forney, Princeton, Fate, Melissa, Midlothian, Burleson, Aledo, etc.
  - Primarily production‑builder product; some build‑for‑rent SF communities.
- Multifamily:
  - High volumes in Dallas urban core, Uptown, Oak Lawn, Design District, Medical District, and along major freeways.
  - Strong suburban multifamily pipelines in Frisco, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Arlington, North Fort Worth, Lewisville, and Irving.
- Townhomes & small‑lot SF:
  - Increasingly common in near‑in Dallas, inner suburbs, and transit‑adjacent sites.

Housing market – demand drivers

Population growth and migration
- Among the fastest‑growing large U.S. metros by absolute population increase.
- Net in‑migration from higher‑cost states and metros (California, Northeast, Midwest) plus strong in‑state migration from smaller Texas markets.
- Age profile skewed younger than many coastal metros; high share of family‑forming households and first‑time buyers.
Employment growth
- Job growth outperforms national average, particularly in:
  - Professional and business services.
  - Logistics, warehousing, and e‑commerce.
  - Financial and insurance services.
  - Healthcare and education.
- Some cyclicality in tech, finance, and office‑using sectors affects certain multifamily submarkets, but overall job base remains diversified.
Relative affordability
- Home prices significantly below West Coast and Northeast peers on an absolute basis.
- However, local affordability has eroded relative to pre‑2020 due to rapid appreciation and higher mortgage rates.
- Strong rental demand from households priced out of ownership or delaying purchase.
Quality of life and schools
- High value placed on:
  - Top‑rated school districts (Frisco ISD, Plano ISD, Carroll ISD, Allen ISD, Prosper ISD, Lovejoy ISD, etc.).
  - Newer housing stock with community amenities, trails, and master‑planned environments.
- These factors heavily drive family demand toward Collin and northern Tarrant/Denton County suburbs.
Investor and institutional demand
- Large presence of:
  - Single‑family rental (SFR) investors targeting affordable inner‑suburbs and entry‑level outer‑suburbs.
  - Institutional multifamily owners and developers in urban core and suburban job corridors.
- Investor activity amplifies price cycles but also supports liquidity, particularly in more affordable areas.

Key challenges in the DFW housing market

Affordability pressures
- Home price growth over the last several years has outpaced income growth in many submarkets.
- Higher mortgage rates reduce purchasing power, especially for first‑time buyers.
- Rapidly appreciating school‑district “hot spots” (Frisco, Prosper, parts of Plano and McKinney, Southlake, etc.) are increasingly out of reach for median‑income households.
Spatial inequality
- Significant gaps between high‑opportunity, high‑income northern suburbs and lower‑income neighborhoods in southern Dallas and some inner‑ring suburbs.
- Concentration of older housing stock and higher crime rates in certain areas may deter investment or require heavy renovation to meet modern standards.
Infrastructure and congestion
- Car‑dependent development pattern, with increasing commute times from far‑flung exurbs.
- Pressure on highways and arterials, with transit options limited in most suburbs.
- Infrastructure build‑out (roads, schools, utilities) sometimes lags behind housing growth in the fastest‑growing exurban corridors.
Property taxes and carrying costs
- Texas’ no‑income‑tax structure pairs with relatively high property tax burdens.
- Escalating appraised values can materially increase annual costs for owners and landlords, particularly in rapidly appreciating suburbs.
Development risk and cyclicality
- Large construction pipeline can put pressure on rents and prices in localized submarkets during slower demand periods.
- Interest‑rate volatility affects builder margins, land valuations, and feasibility of marginal projects.
Land use and entitlement variability
- Patchwork of municipal regulations, school districts, and utility providers adds complexity for developers and institutional investors.
- Some municipalities show resistance to higher‑density or affordable housing product, influencing where supply can be added.

Investment potential by geographic area / region

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
Far‑north Collin/Denton corridor (Frisco, Prosper, Celina, north McKinney, Melissa, Anna)	High (long‑term); near‑term moderate‑high	Medium	Strong population and job growth; high‑quality schools; substantial remaining land. Significant new construction pipeline can soften prices in downturns. Higher entry prices but strong family‑driven end‑user demand.
Mature high‑income suburbs (Plano, Allen, Richardson west of 75, Coppell, Flower Mound)	Moderate‑High (stable)	Low‑Medium	Established infrastructure, schools, and corporate employment centers. Limited greenfield land reduces new‑construction competition. Housing stock maturing; upside via renovations and value‑add strategies.
Ultra‑affluent enclaves (Highland Park, University Park, Southlake, Westlake, parts of Colleyville)	Moderate (price already very high)	Low (but high capital required)	Constrained supply, best‑in‑region schools and amenities. Values relatively resilient in downturns but limited yield; more capital‑preservation than growth play.
Urban Dallas core (Downtown, Uptown, Oak Lawn, Medical District, Design District)	Moderate‑High (cyclical)	Medium‑High	High concentration of Class A multifamily, offices, and amenities; attracts young professionals. Vulnerable to office‑using employment cycles and multifamily oversupply in certain years. Strong long‑term urbanization trend supports values, but active pipeline heightens timing risk.
Inner‑ring value suburbs (Garland, Mesquite, Grand Prairie, older Irving, parts of Arlington)	Moderate (with selective high‑upside pockets)	Medium	More affordable price points; strong demand from workforce households and SFR investors. Homes often older; capex‑heavy; neighborhood performance varies widely street‑to‑street. Good for cash‑flow‑oriented strategies when acquired at discounts with solid tenant base.
South Dallas and some southern inner suburbs (parts of Dallas south of I‑30, Pleasant Grove, parts of Lancaster, DeSoto, Cedar Hill)	Moderate (long‑term upside if reinvestment accelerates)	Medium‑High	Lower acquisition costs; potential for future revitalization and infrastructural investment. Higher crime rates and weaker schools in some areas suppress short‑term appreciation. Careful micro‑location and property management essential.
North Fort Worth & Alliance corridor	High	Medium	Industrial/logistics boom; massive master‑planned communities; strong population inflows. New‑build competition substantial but demand base broad (renters and owners).
East & southeast exurbs (Forney, Fate, Royse City, Princeton, Kaufman/Johnson County edges)	Moderate‑High (from lower base)	Medium	High growth rates; strong appeal to first‑time buyers seeking lower prices. Commuter‑reliant; sensitive to fuel costs and highway congestion. Large tracts under development; care needed to avoid oversupplied subdivisions.
Historic cores & close‑in neighborhoods (East Dallas, Oak Cliff, Near Southside Fort Worth)	Moderate‑High (gentrifying pockets)	Medium‑High	Appeal to lifestyle‑oriented buyers and renters; walkability, culture, older housing stock. Opportunities via rehab, small infill, and ADU‑type product where allowed. Regulatory, neighborhood, and pricing risk higher; deeply block‑by‑block.
Outer western & southern exurbs (Weatherford, Aledo, Cleburne, Midlothian, Waxahachie)	Moderate (steady, long‑horizon)	Low‑Medium	Appeal to buyers seeking space and lower density; moderate price levels. Growth tied to continued regional expansion and highway improvements. Less liquid than core suburbs; good for patient, yield‑oriented capital.

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