Property Makler
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Hilo, HI housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$443	$459	$555	$518	9.9%	3.6%	20.9%	-6.7%
Active Listing Count	778	818	1,086	1,084	66.2%	5.1%	32.8%	-0.2%
Median Days on Market	76	75	85	88	35.7%	-1.3%	13.3%	3.5%
Share of listings with price increase	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%	0.4%
Share of listings with price decrease	12.8%	13.6%	15.5%	15.8%

* last available value

Home prices

Short term housing supply drivers

Long term housing demand drivers

Long term housing supply drivers

Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Overview of Hilo, HI Micropolitan Statistical Area (μSA)

Statistical area: Hilo‑Kailua, HI micropolitan area (entire Hawaii County, Island of Hawaii)
Population (county / μSA): about 207,000 – 210,000 residents
Core hubs: Hilo (east side) and Kailua‑Kona (west side)
General pattern: low‑ to medium‑density coastal towns, rural interior, large areas of agricultural and lava land, strong contrast between wet east and dry west coasts
Taxes: no local personal income tax (only Hawaii state income tax); property tax rates relatively low vs mainland but valuations in resort areas are high

Key Cities / Towns and Sub‑Areas

Main areas usually considered within the Hilo‑Kailua housing market:
- East side: Hilo, Keaau, Pahoa, Hawaiian Paradise Park, Hawaiian Beaches / Hawaiian Shores, Pepeekeo, Honomu
- West / North: Kailua‑Kona, Holualoa, Waikoloa Village, Waimea (Kamuela), Hawi / Kapaau, Ocean View (far southwest)
- Interior / volcanic: Volcano, Mountain View, Fern Acres, Eden Roc and other Puna subdivisions

Area	City/town	Population	Density	Income	Quality of Schools	Crime level	Property tax (%)	Comments
East Hawaii	Hilo (CDP)	≈44,000–50,000	Medium (≈800/sq mi urban core, lower overall)	Low‑to‑moderate; below state median	Mixed public; GreatSchools mostly 4‑7/10	Moderate; property crime higher than violent	≈0.6–0.9% effective	County seat, main jobs center; older housing stock; high rainfall and flood/tsunami exposure on bayfront
East Hawaii	Keaau	≈4,000–5,000	Low‑to‑medium	Low‑to‑moderate	Public schools around 4‑6/10	Moderate	≈0.6–0.9%	Bedroom community for Hilo; larger lots; still relatively affordable
Puna	Pahoa	≈1,500‑2,000 town, larger rural hinterland	Low	Low	GreatSchools mostly 3‑5/10	Higher than county average; petty crime concerns	≈0.6–0.9%	Historically cheapest area; some zones in lava hazard 1‑2, prior eruption impacts
Puna	Hawaiian Paradise Park / nearby subdivisions	≈12,000‑15,000 combined	Low‑to‑medium (rural 1‑acre style lots in many tracts)	Low‑to‑moderate	Public schools feeding to Pahoa / Keaau; 3‑6/10	Moderate‑to‑high	≈0.6–0.9%	Large supply of relatively inexpensive land/homes; some off‑grid; popular with off‑island investors and remote workers
North / Interior East	Pepeekeo / Honomu / Hamakua coast villages	Hundreds to low thousands each	Low	Moderate (mix of ag and professional commuters)	Small schools, often 6‑8/10	Generally lower than Hilo/Puna	≈0.6–0.9%	Scenic ocean‑cliff corridor; limited inventory; legacy plantation homes
West Hawaii	Kailua‑Kona	≈23,000‑25,000 urban core; wider area larger	Medium	Moderate‑to‑high (tourism and resort‑related incomes, but large service sector)	Mixed; most public 5‑7/10, some charters higher	Moderate	≈0.6–0.9%; second homes/resort valuations elevate bills	Dry, sunny; strong tourism and hospitality; tight housing and high prices
West / Mauka	Holualoa, Kona coffee belt	≈8,000‑10,000 area	Low	Moderate‑to‑high	Schools typically 6‑8/10	Low‑to‑moderate	≈0.6–0.9%	Elevation, cooler climate; coffee farms and upscale residential; limited inventory
West / North	Waikoloa Village	≈7,000‑8,000	Low‑to‑medium	Moderate	Schools around 6‑8/10	Low‑to‑moderate	≈0.6–0.9%	Bedroom community for resorts and Kona; planned subdivisions, newer housing stock
North Hawaii	Waimea (Kamuela)	≈10,000	Low‑to‑medium	Moderate‑to‑high (ranching, medical, education, astronomy)	Some of island’s best schools; several 7‑9/10	Low	≈0.6–0.9%	Cooler climate; strong private‑school presence; limited but desirable inventory
North Kohala	Hawi / Kapaau	≈4,000 combined	Low	Moderate	Small schools, roughly 6‑8/10	Low	≈0.6–0.9%	Rural, artsy, slower‑growth; limited but stable housing market
Southwest	Ocean View (Hawaiian Ocean View)	≈3,300‑3,500	Very low	Low	Small schools; 3‑6/10 range	Moderate	≈0.6–0.9%	Very affordable land; long commute; some off‑grid; lava hazard exposure in parts
Volcano region	Volcano / Mountain View / Fern Acres etc.	Thousands across multiple small tracts	Very low	Low‑to‑moderate	Schools generally 4‑7/10	Moderate	≈0.6–0.9%	Forest lots, cooler climate; significant lava hazard in some subdivisions; popular with retirees and artists

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Citizens: Income and Education

Income levels:
- County median household income below Hawaii state median and below U.S. coastal metros
- Hilo and Puna: lowest incomes; many service, retail, ag, and public‑sector jobs
- Kailua‑Kona, Waimea, Kohala resort belt: higher incomes, more professionals, second‑home owners, and retirees
Cost of living vs income:
- Cost of living high due to shipping, energy, and food imports
- Local wages lag cost of living, pushing many households into overcrowded or multigenerational housing
Education:
- Share of residents with bachelor’s degree or higher lower than statewide average
- Higher concentrations of degree‑holders near:
  - University of Hawaii at Hilo
  - Imiloa, astronomy and observatory support in Hilo and Waimea
  - Healthcare clusters in Hilo and Kona
- Vocational/technical education common (construction trades, hospitality, agriculture, maritime)

Key Economic Sectors

Tourism and hospitality:
- Main driver on the Kona / Kohala coasts (resorts, hotels, short‑term rentals, restaurants, tours)
- In Hilo: smaller‑scale hotels, cruise ship traffic, Volcanoes National Park access
Agriculture:
- Coffee (Kona, Ka’u, some Hamakua)
- Macadamia nuts, tropical fruits, vegetables, greenhouse operations in Puna and Hamakua
- Ranching in Waimea and North/South Kohala
Public sector and education:
- County government centered in Hilo
- State and federal agencies, schools, University of Hawaii at Hilo, Hawaii Community College
Healthcare:
- Hilo Medical Center, Kona Community Hospital, clinics across island
- Growing demand from aging population and retirees
Astronomy and science:
- Mauna Kea observatories and related offices/labs in Hilo and Waimea
- Environmental and earth‑science research linked to volcanoes and oceans
Construction and real estate services:
- Cyclical but significant, tied to resort development and housing expansions in Kona, Waikoloa, and Puna
Small business and remote work:
- Retail, food service, small tourism vendors, wellness and creative industries
- Growing niche of remote workers and digital professionals, especially in scenic rural zones with good connectivity

Housing Market – Supply Drivers

Zoning and land‑use openness:
- Large portions of rural Puna, Ocean View, and some Hamakua zoned for low‑density residential/ag, allowing relatively easy single‑family home construction
- Stricter regulations along coastlines, flood zones, and within resort areas; conservation and agricultural zoning limit density in many scenic regions
- Urban Hilo and Kailua‑Kona have limited multifamily zoning relative to demand, restricting higher‑density projects
Regulatory strictness:
- County building codes must account for hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic hazards, and heavy rainfall
- Permitting can be slow due to environmental reviews, shoreline management, and cultural resource protections
- Septic and cesspool regulations constrain development in some older subdivisions; transition to improved wastewater systems raises costs
Land availability:
- On paper, large volumes of subdivided lots in Puna and Ocean View remain undeveloped
- Lava hazard zones (especially 1 and 2 near Kilauea) reduce financeability and insurability, effectively shrinking usable inventory
- In Kona/Waimea/coastal resort belt, land is constrained by topography, conservation areas, and existing resorts, keeping supply tight
Construction workforce and cost:
- Skilled labor pool limited; many contractors are backlogged, especially after natural disasters or booms
- Building materials imported, adding shipping expenses and volatility
- Net effect: per‑square‑foot construction costs high relative to local incomes, slowing new supply except in higher‑end segments
Infrastructure constraints:
- Road capacity issues in Kona and Puna corridors; congestion reduces appetite for large greenfield projects
- Utility extensions (power, water, broadband) expensive in remote areas; many lots remain off‑grid or under‑serviced
Short‑term rental (STR) policies:
- Regulation of vacation rentals can shift units between STR and long‑term markets
- In resort/coastal areas, strong STR demand absorbs much of the buildable inventory, limiting supply for local owner‑occupants

Housing Market – Demand Drivers

Population and migration:
- Overall county growth modest; some years of net out‑migration of younger residents due to cost of living and limited career paths
- Offset by in‑migration of:
  - Retirees seeking climate and lifestyle
  - Remote workers and high‑income second‑home buyers
  - Inter‑island movers leaving Oahu’s higher costs and density
Tourism and resort‑linked demand:
- Resort corridors north of Kona (Kohala Coast) exert strong upward pressure on nearby residential markets such as Waikoloa Village, Waimea, and Kona suburbs
- Vacation rental investors target Kona, Waikoloa, and some Hilo oceanfront, reducing long‑term rental supply
Growing sectors:
- Healthcare: aging demographics support steady job growth, driving stable demand in Hilo, Kona, and Waimea
- Remote and tech‑adjacent work: more buyers prioritizing fiber/broadband pockets and safer hazard zones
- Scientific/education employment (astronomy, UH Hilo, research institutes) supports mid‑market segments in Hilo and Waimea
Declining or volatile sectors:
- Legacy plantation agriculture mostly gone; some uncertainty in sugar‑successor uses
- Tourism demand cyclical and sensitive to global shocks; downturns hit Kona/Waikoloa hardest
Affordability pressures:
- Local wage earners increasingly pushed from Kona and resort‑adjacent neighborhoods into Puna, Ocean View, and interior rural areas
- Household consolidation (multigenerational arrangements) elevates demand for larger single‑family homes with ohana units

Key Challenges in the Housing Market

Mismatch between incomes and housing costs:
- Even “affordable” areas like Puna are expensive relative to local wages when factoring in utilities, transportation, and imports
- Down‑payment and mortgage qualification barriers high for local households
Hazard risk and insurance:
- Lava zones in Puna and parts of Ka’u limit conventional financing and raise insurance costs or make coverage unavailable
- Flood and tsunami exposure in low‑lying Hilo and some coastal communities complicates development and elevates risk
- Hurricane and earthquake risks affect construction standards and insurance pricing island‑wide
Underbuilding in job‑rich areas:
- Chronic undersupply in Kona/Waimea/Resort belt where employment is strongest
- Limited multifamily stock near major employers; workers pushed into long commutes
Infrastructure and transport:
- Single‑corridor highways vulnerable to congestion and closures (e.g., landslides, accidents, lava)
- Public transit coverage thin; car dependence inflates effective housing costs
Regulatory and entitlement friction:
- Environmental, cultural, and community review processes lengthen timelines and add uncertainty for larger projects
- Balancing housing needs with preservation of cultural sites and sensitive ecosystems is complex and contentious
Short‑term rentals vs local housing:
- Investor demand for STRs in coastal and scenic areas competes directly with local residents
- Policy shifts can rapidly change the viability of STR‑based investment and the composition of supply

Investment Potential by Area

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
Kailua‑Kona urban and close‑in suburbs	High	Medium	Persistent housing undersupply near jobs and amenities; strong tourism; limited buildable land; high entry price point; exposure to tourism cycles
Kohala Coast resort belt (resort condos, luxury homes)	High (cyclical)	High	Luxury tourism; global buyer base; STR revenue potential; high sensitivity to travel downturns and regulatory changes; expensive carrying costs
Waikoloa Village	Moderate‑to‑high	Medium	Bedroom community for resorts and Kona; newer housing; demand from workers and remote professionals; land still available but infrastructure limits pace
Waimea (Kamuela)	High	Medium	Desirability (climate, schools, lifestyle); limited inventory; diversity of employment (ranching, healthcare, education, astronomy); prices already elevated
Hilo urban core	Moderate	Medium	County seat and service hub; stable public‑sector employment; relatively affordable entry; slower appreciation than Kona; flood/tsunami and aging‑stock risk
Greater Hilo suburbs (Keaau, upper Hilo, Hamakua villages)	Moderate‑to‑high	Low‑to‑medium	Commuter access to Hilo; scenic settings; moderate pricing; constrained new supply in some coastal stretches; attractive for families and remote workers
Puna – Hawaiian Paradise Park and better‑serviced subdivisions	Moderate (speculative)	High	Very strong affordability relative to rest of island; growing remote‑worker and local demand; but crime concerns, infrastructure gaps, and partial lava hazard exposure
Puna – high lava hazard areas near active vents	Low‑to‑uncertain	Very high	Finance and insurance challenges; past eruption damage; land extremely cheap but resale and long‑term habitability uncertain
Hawi / North Kohala rural towns	Moderate	Low‑to‑medium	Stable, slower‑growing market; appeal for retirees and lifestyle buyers; limited job base caps explosive appreciation but supports resilience
Ocean View (Hawaiian Ocean View Estates and Ranchos)	Low‑to‑moderate (speculative)	High	Extremely low land costs and off‑grid potential; very long commute times; lava hazard in parts; demand mainly from budget‑constrained and alternative‑lifestyle buyers
Volcano / Mountain View forested areas	Moderate	High	Niche demand from retirees, artists, and vacation‑rental guests; cooler climate; some lots in higher lava hazard; tourism to Volcanoes National Park supports STR but policy risk exists
Older Hilo coastal and low‑lying neighborhoods	Low‑to‑moderate	Medium‑to‑high	Appeal of ocean proximity offset by flood/tsunami risk, older construction, and higher insurance; redevelopment potential constrained by zoning and costs

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