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Killeen-Temple, TX housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	Change	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$163	$171	$165	$163		18.1%	4.9%	-3.5%	-1.2%
Active Listing Count	1,465	1,832	2,246	2,524		202.1%	25.1%	22.6%	12.4%
Median Days on Market	65	70	80	80		22.6%	7.7%	14.3%	0%
Share of listings with price increase	1.4%	1.2%	0.8%	0.9%
Share of listings with price decrease	13.2%	17.9%	19.2%	19.5%

* last available value


Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Geographic overview and key cities/towns

• Killeen‑Temple MSA covers 3 Central Texas counties: Bell, Coryell, and part of Lampasas.
• 2023–2024 population about 500k–510k, with steady growth (~1.5–2% per year recently).
• Two principal urban anchors: Killeen (west, adjacent to Fort Cavazos/Fort Hood) and Temple (east, on I‑35).
• Other important cities/towns: Harker Heights, Belton, Copperas Cove, Nolanville, Salado, Gatesville, Lampasas, Kempner, Morgan’s Point Resort, Troy, Little River‑Academy, Bartlett, Holland, Rogers.
• Key geographic sub‑areas for housing analysis:
  • Fort Cavazos / Killeen / Harker Heights / Nolanville corridor – heavy military presence, younger demographics, strong rental demand.
  • Temple / Belton / Morgan’s Point Resort / Troy corridor – I‑35/US‑190, growing medical and logistics hub, more owner‑occupied and suburban product.
  • Salado and southern Bell County – small‑town / exurban, higher income, strong schools, semi‑rural large‑lot housing.
  • Copperas Cove / Gatesville / Kempner / Lampasas – mix of bedroom‑community and rural markets, lower prices, more land‑focused product.

Area	City/town	Population (approx.)	Density	Income level	Quality of schools (GreatSchools – typical range)	Crime level	Property tax (effective %)	Personal income tax	Comments
West urban core	Killeen	≈160,000	High for region – largely built‑out city	Lower‑middle to middle (median HH ≈$60k)	Elementary/middle mostly 4–7; some 2–3 and 8–9 pockets	Above‑average crime vs US; varies by neighborhood	≈2.0–2.5% of assessed value (Bell County + city/ISD)	None (Texas has no local personal income tax)	Heavily influenced by Fort Cavazos; very strong rental and for‑sale demand from military turnover.
West suburbs	Harker Heights	≈34,000	Suburban, moderate density	Middle to upper‑middle	Many schools 6–8; some 8–9 rated options in KISD	Lower than Killeen, still above US average in some tracts	≈2.0–2.5%	None	Preferred “move‑up” submarket for Killeen; newer subdivisions, strong owner‑occupant demand.
West fringe	Nolanville	≈6,000–7,000	Low‑moderate density, new subdivisions	Middle	Most schools 4–7 via Killeen ISD	Moderate; generally lower than Killeen core	≈2.0–2.5%	None	Growth spillover from Killeen/Harker Heights; attractive for commuters wanting newer homes at lower price point.
Fort Cavazos area	Copperas Cove	≈37,000–40,000	Suburban small city	Lower‑middle to middle	Typical 4–7; some outliers	Moderate; influenced by transient military population	≈2.0–2.4%	None	Affordable housing tied to base; relatively high rental share and turnover.
East urban core	Temple	≈85,000–85,500	High for region; urban/suburban mix	Middle; median HH mid‑$60k–$70k	Broad 4–8 band; best campuses 8–9	Moderate; generally lower than Killeen	≈2.1–2.6%	None	Anchored by large medical/healthcare complex and manufacturing; strong job and housing demand along I‑35.
Lake / central Bell	Belton	≈25,000	Suburban; near lake and I‑35	Middle to upper‑middle	Belton ISD commonly 6–9; some of the region’s strongest scores	Lower‑than‑average for region	≈2.0–2.4%	None	High demand from families; lake‑adjacent and university (UMHB in nearby Belton ETJ) add stability.
I‑35 north of Temple	Troy	≈2,500–3,000	Low‑moderate density	Middle	Many schools 5–8	Generally low	≈2.0–2.4%	None	Bedroom community for Temple/Waco/Belton; land‑rich with room to grow along I‑35.
South Bell / boutique	Salado	≈2,500–3,000	Low density, semi‑rural	Upper‑middle to high	Salado ISD often 7–9	Low	≈1.9–2.3%	None	Upscale small‑town feel; custom homes, tourism, and strong school reputation drive pricing.
Northwest / county seat	Gatesville	≈16,000	Small‑city, low‑moderate density	Lower‑middle	Typical 3–6	Moderate	≈1.8–2.2%	None	Economy influenced by state prison complex and government jobs; slower housing appreciation.
Western rural/exurban	Lampasas / Kempner	Lampasas ≈8,500; Kempner ≈1,000	Low density, rural	Lower‑middle	Ranges 3–7	Generally low‑moderate	≈1.6–2.1%	None	More land and acreage; values driven by lifestyle and Austin‑region spillover over the very long term.
Lake / resort	Morgan’s Point Resort	≈5,000–6,000	Low‑moderate density, lakefront	Middle to upper‑middle	Feeds into Belton/Temple ISDs, mostly 6–9	Low	≈2.0–2.4%	None	Lake Belton amenity and lifestyle draw; limited supply of view/lake lots.

Citizens: income and education

• Metro median household income ≈$65k–$70k, with rapid recent growth and substantial variation across sub‑markets.
• Per‑capita income is below the US average, reflecting younger age structure and military population, but trending upward.
• Income distribution:
  • Large share of households in $50k–$100k band (enlisted and NCO military, healthcare, skilled trades).
  • Growing upper‑middle incomes ($100k–$150k+) in Temple/Belton/Salado and among officers and medical professionals.
  • Persistent lower‑income pockets in older Killeen neighborhoods, parts of Copperas Cove, Gatesville and rural areas.
• Education attainment (metro‑wide, approximate):
  • High school or higher: ~90% of adults.
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: ~23–28% (below large metros but rising).
  • Temple/Belton/Salado and some Harker Heights tracts substantially above metro average in BA+ share.
• Influencing factors:
  • Fort Cavazos generates a large pool with technical training and some college, plus GI‑Bill‑driven college completion post‑service.
  • Local colleges/universities (Central Texas College, Texas A&M – Central Texas, University of Mary Hardin‑Baylor, Temple College) support upskilling and nursing/healthcare pipelines.

Key economic sectors

• Defense and federal government
  • Fort Cavazos/Fort Hood is the dominant single economic driver; tens of thousands of active‑duty personnel plus civilian workers and contractors.
  • Stabilizes housing demand even in national downturns, but exposes region to federal budget and base‑realignment risk.
• Healthcare and life sciences
  • Temple is a major medical hub (Baylor Scott & White system, VA, specialty hospitals); strong source of high‑income, stable employment.
  • Creates consistent demand for mid‑ to upper‑tier housing and professional rentals.
• Manufacturing and logistics
  • Food processing, equipment manufacturing, distribution centers clustered along I‑35 and rail in Temple/Belton.
  • Provides blue‑ and gray‑collar jobs with moderate wages; supports entry‑level ownership and workforce rentals.
• Education
  • Multiple colleges plus K‑12 districts (Killeen ISD, Temple ISD, Belton ISD, Salado ISD, etc.) are large employers and anchor institutions.
• Retail, services, and hospitality
  • Strong local‑serving retail in Killeen and Temple; tourism and boutique retail in Salado and at Lake Belton.
• Agriculture and rural economy
  • Ranching and small‑scale agriculture remain important in Coryell and Lampasas counties, shaping land values on the metro fringe.

Housing buying market – supply drivers

• Zoning openness / land availability
  • Generally pro‑growth and permissive compared with coastal metros; most cities actively encourage new subdivisions.
  • Substantial greenfield land around Killeen, Harker Heights, Temple, Belton and Troy allows continued outward expansion.
  • Some constraints around Lake Belton (topography, shoreline regulations) and in built‑out parts of Killeen/Temple for infill.
• Regulatory strictness / permitting
  • Texas overall has relatively streamlined entitlement processes; local jurisdictions are generally supportive of residential development.
  • Impact fees and infrastructure requirements exist but are modest vs high‑regulation states; main friction points are utilities and roadway capacity in fast‑growth corridors.
• Construction workforce and cost
  • Strong regional construction labor pool shared with the broader Central Texas corridor (Austin–Waco–Bryan/College Station).
  • Labor costs have risen due to statewide housing boom, but remain lower than in Austin or Dallas, supporting continued building at moderate price points.
• Type of new supply
  • Predominantly single‑family detached subdivisions (starter and move‑up product) in Killeen fringe, Harker Heights, Nolanville, Temple, Belton, Troy.
  • Some townhome and small‑lot single‑family infill in older Killeen/Temple neighborhoods.
  • Multifamily (garden‑style and mid‑density) concentrated near Fort Cavazos, along US‑190/I‑14, and in Temple near medical centers.
• Infrastructure and utilities
  • I‑14/US‑190 and I‑35 corridors enable linear growth; access to major highways is a key determinant of subdivision feasibility.
  • Water/sanitary capacity is being expanded but can be a gating factor in some fringe and rural zones.
• Land and impact of property taxes
  • Land is still comparatively affordable vs Austin–San Antonio, but agricultural valuations and homestead exemptions shape holding decisions.
  • Relatively high property tax rates (around 2–2.5%) affect affordability and investor yield calculations, especially for high‑price segments.

Housing buying market – demand drivers

• Military churn and stability
  • Fort Cavazos supplies a constant stream of inbound and outbound households through PCS moves, deployments, and separations.
  • Supports:
    • Strong demand for short‑hold ownership (3–7 years).
    • Very robust rental demand for SFH and small multifamily near base gates and in Killeen/Harker Heights/Copperas Cove.
• Population growth and migration
  • Metro population is growing faster than the US average, though slower than Austin or San Antonio.
  • In‑migration sources:
    • Other Texas metros (Austin, Dallas–Fort Worth, Waco) seeking lower prices.
    • Out‑of‑state moves driven by cost of living and Texas’ tax structure.
• Expanding healthcare and medical complex
  • Temple/Belton area is adding medical jobs and facilities; this is one of the fastest‑growing “white‑collar” drivers in the MSA.
  • Creates sustained demand for mid‑ and upper‑tier ownership product and high‑quality rentals near hospitals and along I‑35.
• Manufacturing and logistics growth
  • New and expanded industrial facilities along I‑35/rail contribute to household formation at workforce price points.
  • Investor demand targets modest‑priced SFH and B‑class multifamily suitable for blue‑collar and logistics workers.
• Relative affordability vs Austin corridor
  • Housing costs are significantly lower than in the Austin MSA, attracting commuters and teleworkers willing to trade drive time for cheaper ownership.
  • Salado, Lampasas and other southern/western areas benefit indirectly from Austin’s sprawl and long‑term northward growth.
• Interest rates and investor appetite
  • Rising rates in 2022‑2023 cooled speculative buying but end‑user demand remained supported by population and base‑related needs.
  • Institutional interest is modest; the market is dominated by local and regional investors, which keeps pricing more closely tied to fundamentals.

Key challenges on the housing market

• Affordability pressure for lower‑income households
  • Rapid price and rent increases outpaced wages for entry‑level workers and some junior enlisted families.
  • Limited new construction at the very lowest price points due to land, materials, and regulatory minimums.
• Neighborhood quality disparities
  • Older parts of Killeen and some small‑town cores show higher crime, aging housing stock, and deferred maintenance.
  • Contrast between these areas and newer subdivisions in Harker Heights, Belton, Salado, and Temple raises intra‑metro inequality.
• Infrastructure strain in growth corridors
  • Traffic congestion on key arterials (US‑190/I‑14, segments around Temple/Belton) as rooftops outpace road capacity.
  • Need for ongoing investment in schools, water/sewer, and public safety to keep up with suburban expansion.
• Concentration risk in defense sector
  • Economic and housing demand heavily reliant on Fort Cavazos; major force‑structure cuts or mission changes would significantly affect values, especially around Killeen/Copperas Cove.
• Property tax burden
  • High effective property tax rates reduce net affordability and investor cash flow, particularly as values rise.
  • Can push some households toward renting instead of owning, especially in higher‑priced school‑districts.
• Limited higher‑density and “missing middle” housing
  • Market is dominated by SFH on conventional lots and garden apartments; fewer townhomes, duplex clusters, or small‑scale infill products.
  • Contributes to affordability gaps for singles, young professionals, and seniors wanting to downsize but stay local.

Investment potential by area/region

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
Killeen (citywide)	Moderate (long‑term); High for well‑chosen neighborhoods	Medium–High	• Fort Cavazos demand and constant turnover • Affordable entry price points • Higher crime and property‑management intensity in some tracts • Sensitive to defense budgets and local school perceptions
Harker Heights	High	Medium	• “Move‑up” and family‑oriented suburb of choice for many base‑related households • Newer housing stock and better‑perceived schools vs Killeen • Limited land compared to Killeen, supporting values over time
Nolanville and eastern Killeen fringe	High (growth corridor)	Medium	• Spillover from Killeen/Harker Heights along I‑14 • New subdivisions at moderate prices • Still maturing services and retail; school perceptions tied to KISD performance
Copperas Cove	Moderate	Medium	• Directly tied to Fort Cavazos; strong rental demand but high tenant turnover • Lower entry prices but slower appreciation than more diversified submarkets • Limited white‑collar job base outside the military
Temple (citywide)	High	Medium	• Expanding medical, education, and industrial base • Strategic position on I‑35 between Austin and Waco • Increasing interest from out‑of‑market buyers; some risk of affordability squeeze
Belton and Morgan’s Point Resort (Lake Belton area)	High	Medium	• Strong school districts and lake amenities • Constrained supply of waterfront and view properties • Attractive to higher‑income households and retirees; resilience in downturns but tax burden can be material
Salado and south Bell County	High (niche, long‑term)	Medium	• Upscale small‑town positioning with strong schools and tourism • Beneficiary of long‑term Austin–Temple corridor growth • Limited inventory; illiquidity risk and sensitivity to high‑end demand cycles
Troy / I‑35 north fringe	Moderate–High (greenfield)	Medium	• Room for outward expansion serving Temple/Belton/Waco commuters • Lower current prices and taxes • Dependent on infrastructure build‑out and school performance staying competitive
Gatesville and Coryell rural areas	Low–Moderate	Medium	• Government and corrections‑driven economy with modest growth • Lower housing prices but limited appreciation catalysts • Best suited for cash‑flow‑focused or specialized strategies rather than rapid equity growth
Lampasas, Kempner, Lampasas‑county rural	Moderate (near‑term); High (very long‑term, Austin spillover)	Medium–High	• Acreage and rural lifestyle appeal; limited new‑home competition • Speculative upside if Austin’s growth continues to push northwest over decades • Short‑ to mid‑term demand growth is slower; liquidity can be thin
Older central neighborhoods in Killeen and Temple	Moderate (value‑add)	High	• Lowest entry prices; potential for repositioning and infill • Higher crime, aging infrastructure, and management complexity • Returns depend heavily on micro‑location and execution quality

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