Property Makler
Advanced analytics for residential real estate investing

Knoxville, TN housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$202	$220	$230	$231	15.4%	8.9%	4.5%	0.4%
Active Listing Count	1,588	2,019	2,675	3,573	82.7%	27.1%	32.5%	33.6%
Median Days on Market	60	54	65	63	27.7%	-10%	20.4%	-3.1%
Share of listings with price increase	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%
Share of listings with price decrease	13.5%	15.1%	19.4%	23%

* last available value

Home prices

Short term housing supply drivers

Long term housing demand drivers

Long term housing supply drivers

Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Knoxville, TN MSA – Overview

Knoxville MSA population around 950,000 – 960,000; core city Knoxville nearly 200,000 residents.
MSA counties: Anderson, Blount, Campbell, Grainger, Knox, Loudon, Morgan, Roane, Union, plus portions of surrounding micropolitan areas often considered in the functional housing market (e.g., Sevier, Jefferson).
Market structure: compact urban core (City of Knoxville), high‑growth inner suburbs (Farragut, Hardin Valley, West Knoxville, Maryville/Alcoa, Lenoir City), slower‑growth or exurban counties (Anderson, Roane, Union, parts of Loudon and Campbell).
Top geography drivers: Tennessee River and Fort Loudoun Lake shorelines, I‑40/I‑75/I‑640 corridors, I‑140 (Pellissippi Pkwy), I‑81 access to northeast, proximity to Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Cities / Towns and Key Sub‑Areas

Area	City/town	Population (approx.)	Density (urban/suburban/rural)	Income level	Quality of schools (GreatSchools typical range)	Crime level	Property tax (effective % of value)	Personal income tax	Comments
Urban Core – Central Knoxville	City of Knoxville (central & older neighborhoods)	~200,000 (city total)	Mixed; central areas medium‑high density	Mixed, overall low‑moderate; wide neighborhood spread	Elementary/HS often 3–6; some magnets/charters 7–9	Higher than suburban areas; pockets of very high crime, major variation by neighborhood	~0.8–1.0% effective (city + county) depending on assessment	None locally (Tennessee has no wage income tax; no city/county supplement)	Older housing stock, strong rental demand; student/younger demographic driven by University of Tennessee
West Knoxville	West Knoxville neighborhoods (Cedar Bluff, West Hills, Rocky Hill, Deane Hill, etc.)	~80,000–100,000 within city limits plus adjacent county areas	Suburban, medium density	Moderate‑high; strong professional/managerial base	Many schools 6–9; a few 4–5; strong perception among buyers	Moderate; lower than urban core but higher than top suburbs like Farragut	~0.7–0.9%	None	Retail and office spine along Kingston Pike and I‑40; very tight resale inventory, rising prices
Farragut / Hardin Valley	Town of Farragut; Hardin Valley (unincorporated Knox County)	Farragut ~25,000; Hardin Valley corridor ~25,000+ and growing	Suburban, low‑medium density, heavy new subdivisions	High; among the highest incomes in the MSA	Many schools 8–10; some of the region’s top GreatSchools scores	Low; considered one of the safest parts of the metro	~0.6–0.8%	None	Newer housing stock, HOA subdivisions; strong demand from relocating professionals and families; some land constraints and school crowding
North Knoxville / Fountain City / Halls	North Knoxville neighborhoods; Fountain City; Halls Crossroads	~60,000–70,000 across these communities	Mixture of older suburban and semi‑rural	Low‑moderate; more affordable than most west‑side suburbs	Typical 4–7; some schools improving with in‑migration	Low‑moderate; higher along older commercial corridors	~0.7–0.9%	None	Appeals to value‑oriented buyers; more older housing, smaller infill projects; potential for long‑term appreciation as “close‑in” alternative
South Knoxville / South Waterfront	South Knoxville neighborhoods; waterfront redevelopment corridor	~40,000–50,000	Urban‑suburban mix; some riverfront multifamily	Low‑moderate but rising in waterfront pockets	Schools mostly 3–6; select magnets/charters higher	Mixed; some high‑crime pockets, but improving close‑in neighborhoods	~0.7–0.9%	None	Emerging redevelopment node tied to greenways, riverfront, proximity to downtown and UT; higher risk‑higher upside
Maryville / Alcoa	City of Maryville; City of Alcoa (Blount County)	Maryville ~33,000; Alcoa ~14,000; larger commuting shed ~80,000+	Suburban‑small city	Moderate; mix of manufacturing/industrial and white‑collar	Many schools 6–9; Maryville City Schools especially strong	Low‑moderate; generally safer than central Knoxville	~0.6–0.8%	None	Good access via Alcoa Hwy and Pellissippi Pkwy; airport nearby; strong appeal for families and manufacturing workers
Oak Ridge	City of Oak Ridge (Anderson/Roane)	~32,000	Suburban‑small city; pockets of higher‑density multifamily	Moderate‑high; strong STEM/PhD workforce	Schools often 7–9; high academic reputation tied to lab presence	Low‑moderate; some older neighborhoods with higher stats	~0.6–0.8%	None	Heavily influenced by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and federal contractors; stable, specialized market, limited new supply
Lenoir City / Loudon County lake communities	Lenoir City; Tellico Village; Loudon	Lenoir City ~12,000; broader county ~60,000+	Suburban/exurban; low density outside towns	Moderate‑high in lake/retiree enclaves; moderate elsewhere	Typical 5–8; varies by attendance zone	Low in planned communities; moderate in town	~0.6–0.8%	None	Significant second‑home and retiree demand; strong pull from out‑of‑state buyers seeking lakes and low taxes
North Anderson / Clinton / Norris	Clinton; Norris; unincorporated Anderson County	Clinton ~10,000; county ~80,000+	Small‑town and rural	Low‑moderate; less expensive housing	Schools typical 4–7	Low‑moderate; generally quieter bedroom‑community profile	~0.6–0.8%	None	Value play for commuters to Oak Ridge or Knoxville; modest new construction
Campbell / Union / Grainger / Morgan exurbs	LaFollette, Jacksboro, Maynardville, Rutledge, Wartburg, etc.	Each town 2,000–8,000; counties generally 20,000–40,000	Low‑density rural/exurban	Low; below metro median incomes	Typical 2–6; limited choice; some consolidation	Generally low to moderate; localized issues in small towns	~0.5–0.7%	None	Lower prices, limited liquidity; more sensitive to employment swings; modest short‑term appreciation but potential for long‑term land value as metro expands

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Citizens – Income and Education

Metro median household income: solidly mid‑range; below top‑tier Sun Belt metros but above many Appalachian regions.
Income distribution: high share of moderate‑income service and logistics workers, plus concentrated high‑income pockets in Farragut, Hardin Valley, Maryville, Oak Ridge, and lake communities.
Per‑capita income boosted by federal and R&D workforce (Oak Ridge), healthcare, and university‑linked professionals.
Education attainment:
- Share with bachelor’s or higher: modestly above typical Appalachian levels, below top coastal metros.
- Highly educated clusters around UT Knoxville, Oak Ridge, and West Knoxville/Farragut.
- Outer counties show lower bachelor’s‑degree share, higher share with only high school or some college.
Demographic mix: sizable student population, retirees from higher‑cost states, and in‑migrants from the Midwest and Northeast, plus longstanding local working‑class communities.

Key Economic Sectors

Education & Research
- University of Tennessee Knoxville – major employer and talent engine.
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Y‑12 – high‑wage scientific, engineering, and federal contracting jobs.
Healthcare
- Regional medical centers and hospital systems supporting multi‑county region.
- Growing demand from aging population and in‑migrants.
Manufacturing & Advanced Materials
- Aerospace, automotive suppliers, aluminum/metal, nuclear‑related manufacturing.
- Maryville/Alcoa, Loudon, and Anderson counties host significant industrial operations.
Logistics & Distribution
- Strategic location on I‑40/I‑75 corridor; large truck‑based distribution and e‑commerce fulfillment.
Tourism & Outdoor Recreation
- Proximity to Great Smoky Mountains, lakes, and national parks drives hospitality and short‑term rentals.
Business Services & Back‑Office
- Call centers, shared services, and professional services serve regional clients.

Housing Buying Market – Supply Drivers

Zoning and land use
- City of Knoxville: gradually loosening zoning in some corridors and downtown for higher‑density and mixed‑use; neighborhood resistance slows upzoning in established single‑family areas.
- Suburban Knox County (Farragut, Hardin Valley): more restrictive patterns, strong neighborhood input, infrastructure and school‑capacity concerns limiting density.
- Outer counties: generally more permissive zoning, large‑lot subdivisions, but weaker infrastructure and demand limit large‑scale projects.
Regulatory strictness
- Building and subdivision review moderately strict in Knox and Blount counties; some timelines and design standards but not at big‑city levels.
- Environmental and stormwater requirements around lakes and rivers add cost to waterfront development.
Land availability
- Close‑in land: limited and fragmented; teardowns and infill increasingly important.
- Greenfield land: still available in outer Knox, Loudon, Anderson, Blount, and Campbell, but infrastructure extension costs rising.
- Topography: hills, ridgelines, and waterways reduce usable acreage and push up lot development costs in parts of the metro.
Construction costs and workforce
- Labor market tight for skilled trades; competition with booming Nashville and regional metros keeps wages elevated relative to local incomes.
- Materials costs remain above pre‑pandemic levels; builders cautious with speculative starts as mortgage rates stay elevated.
Builder activity
- Regional and local builders dominate; national publics active in large subdivisions in Hardin Valley, West Knox, Blount, and Loudon counties.
- Permit volumes cooled from 2021‑2022 peak but remain above pre‑COVID baseline.
Rental and multifamily supply
- Downtown, UT area, and West Knoxville seeing new multifamily and mixed‑use projects.
- Some near‑term risk of pockets of over‑supply in student‑oriented and Class A rentals, but for‑sale inventory still structurally tight.

Housing Buying Market – Demand Drivers

Migration
- Net in‑migration from higher‑cost states (Florida, California, Mid‑Atlantic, Midwest) seeking lower housing costs and taxes.
- Retiree inflow and remote workers increasing demand for lake, mountain‑view, and amenity communities.
- Some local out‑migration of younger households from central Knoxville to suburban areas for schools and newer housing.
Employment and sector growth
- Growth sectors: education/research (UT, ORNL), healthcare, logistics, and advanced manufacturing support sustained housing demand.
- Federal and lab‑linked employment in Oak Ridge produces stable, counter‑cyclical demand in specific sub‑markets.
- Tourism and short‑term rentals spillover from Sevier County add investor demand for certain lake and scenic locations.
Affordability dynamics
- Metro remains more affordable than many coastal and big Sun Belt metros, but price growth in West Knoxville, Farragut, and lake areas outpaced income growth.
- Higher mortgage rates have priced some local buyers out of prime sub‑markets, pushing demand to North/South Knoxville and outer counties.
Demographics
- Growing student, young professional, and retiree cohorts produce demand across rental, entry‑level, and move‑up segments.
- Household formation among in‑migrants partially offsets slower natural population growth.

Key Challenges in the Housing Market

Affordability pressure
- Rising home prices in West Knoxville, Farragut, and favored school zones outstrip local wage gains.
- Limited stock of true “starter” homes; competition from investors for older small houses.
Inventory constraints
- Existing homeowners “locked in” to low mortgage rates reduce resale listings.
- New construction under‑producing relative to in‑migration and household growth, particularly close‑in and in top school zones.
Infrastructure and schools
- Traffic congestion along Kingston Pike, I‑40/I‑75, Hardin Valley, and Alcoa Highway.
- School crowding in top‑rated districts (Farragut, Hardin Valley, Maryville) limits rezonings and upzoning.
Uneven neighborhood conditions
- Central Knoxville faces localized crime, aging housing stock, and infrastructure needs.
- Perception gap: many close‑in neighborhoods with good bones still considered “transitional,” slowing reinvestment.
Regulatory and political friction
- Neighborhood opposition to density and multi‑family projects in desirable suburbs.
- Balancing short‑term rentals and owner‑occupied housing near UT, downtown, and lake areas.
Outer‑county vulnerability
- Exurban counties more exposed to job losses in manufacturing or retail.
- Thin buyer pools and lower incomes increase market risk and slow recovery from downturns.

Investment Potential by Area

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
Farragut / Hardin Valley (West Knox County suburbs)	High (moderate‑high from elevated base)	Moderate (pricing already high; rate‑sensitive)	Top school ratings, high incomes, strong buyer preference. Limited prime land; zoning and school capacity restrict over‑building. Attractive to relocating professionals and dual‑income households.
West Knoxville (inside city, non‑Farragut)	Moderate‑high	Moderate	Established retail and employment corridors, strong convenience factor. Good but mixed schools; some aging housing stock creates renovation opportunities. Steady owner‑occupant and investor demand for well‑located properties.
Downtown Knoxville / South Waterfront / near‑UT	High (select pockets)	High	Ongoing urban revitalization, mixed‑use, and waterfront projects. Strong rental demand from students, young professionals, and short‑term visitors. Higher exposure to cyclical rental markets, policy changes on STRs, and localized crime perception.
North Knoxville / Fountain City / Halls	Moderate‑high (value‑driven)	Moderate	More affordable close‑in housing attractive as west‑side prices climb. Opportunities for renovation, small infill, and build‑to‑rent. Dependent on school performance trends and infrastructure improvements.
South Knoxville neighborhoods (non‑waterfront)	Moderate with upside in select tracts	Moderate‑high	Growing interest due to greenways, outdoor access, and proximity to downtown. Mixed school quality and pockets of crime create uneven performance by street. Best suited for investors comfortable with neighborhood‑by‑neighborhood analysis.
Maryville / Alcoa (Blount County)	High	Moderate	Strong schools, diversified economy (manufacturing + services), and good commute access. Appeal for families and workers tied to airport and industrial employers. Less speculative than downtown, generally stable long‑term hold area.
Oak Ridge	Moderate‑high (steady, not explosive)	Low‑moderate	Anchored by federal research and defense spending; relatively recession‑resistant. Limited new construction, older but solid housing stock. Specialized buyer pool; price growth tied to lab budgets and federal priorities.
Lakes and amenity communities (Loudon, Tellico, etc.)	High long‑term, but cyclical	High	Strong retiree and second‑home demand from out‑of‑state buyers seeking lifestyle and tax advantages. Sensitive to stock market performance and interest rates. Resale volumes can drop sharply in downturns; focus on quality locations and HOAs with strong governance.
Outer exurban counties (Campbell, Union, Grainger, Morgan, rural Roane/Anderson)	Low‑moderate	High	Low price point with limited buyer pool; slower appreciation, especially far from interstates. More exposed to job losses in manufacturing, retail, and small employers. Best treated as long‑term land or cash‑flow plays rather than quick appreciation bets.
Central Knoxville older neighborhoods (non‑revitalized)	Moderate (select blocks high), highly variable	High	Significant upside where reinvestment and spillover from downtown occur. High renovation costs, tenant‑management challenges, and crime in some tracts. Requires granular, block‑by‑block due diligence and strong property management.

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