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Memphis, TN-MS-AR housing market
Housing market indicators
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025* | Change | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Listing Price per Square Feet | $153 | $158 | $161 | $154 | 17.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | -4.3% | |
| Active Listing Count | 2,668 | 3,429 | 4,064 | 5,002 | 115.3% | 28.5% | 18.5% | 23.1% | |
| Median Days on Market | 61 | 63 | 73 | 68 | 38.6% | 3.3% | 15.9% | -6.8% | |
| Share of listings with price increase | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1% | 0.9% | |||||
| Share of listings with price decrease | 12.3% | 18.2% | 21.1% | 21.3% | |||||
| Permits | 130 | 284 | 233 | 237 | -64.1% | 118.5% | -18% | 1.7% | |
* last available value
Home prices
Short term housing supply drivers
Long term housing demand drivers
Long term housing supply drivers
Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED
Housing market overview
Memphis, TN-MS-AR MSA Overview and Key Areas
- The Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) spans Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas with a 2024 population of 1,339,345 across 12,903 km².
- It includes 9 counties: Shelby (TN), Fayette (TN), Tipton (TN), Crittenden (AR), DeSoto (MS), Marshall (MS), Tate (MS), Tunica (MS), and St. Francis (AR).
- Key geographic regions: Central urban core (Memphis city), East suburbs (Germantown, Collierville, Bartlett), North suburbs (Millington, Atoka), West suburbs across MS/AR border (Southaven, Olive Branch, West Memphis, Hernando), and rural outliers (Forrest City AR, Holly Springs MS).
- Population slightly declining: 1,346,224 in 2020 to 1,339,345 in 2024.
| Area | City/Town | Population | Density | Income | Quality of Schools | Crime Level | Property Tax (%) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | Memphis | 621,000 | High urban | Low ($47k median household MSA-wide) | Poor (GreatSchools 2-6 range) | High | 2.35 (Shelby Co) | Urban core, diverse, logistics hub |
| East Suburbs | Collierville | 52,000 | Medium | High ($130k+ median) | Excellent (GreatSchools 8-10) | Low | 1.15 (Shelby Co rate) | Affluent, family-oriented |
| East Suburbs | Germantown | 41,000 | Medium | Very High ($140k+) | Excellent (GreatSchools 9-10) | Very Low | 1.15 | Top-ranked suburb |
| East Suburbs | Bartlett | 57,000 | Medium-high | Medium-high ($90k) | Good (GreatSchools 6-9) | Medium-low | 1.15 | Growing residential |
| North Suburbs | Millington | 28,000 | Medium | Medium ($70k) | Fair (GreatSchools 4-7) | Medium | 1.15 (Shelby) | Naval base influence |
| West MS | Southaven | 55,000 | High | Medium ($65k) | Fair (GreatSchools 4-7) | Medium-high | 1.10 (DeSoto Co) | Retail growth |
| West MS | Olive Branch | 42,000 | Medium | Medium-high ($80k) | Good (GreatSchools 6-8) | Medium | 1.10 | Industrial expansion |
| West AR | West Memphis | 25,000 | Medium | Low ($45k) | Poor (GreatSchools 2-5) | High | 0.85 (Crittenden Co) | Casino, logistics |
| Rural South | Hernando | 17,000 | Low | Medium ($75k) | Good (GreatSchools 7-9) | Low-medium | 1.10 | Commuter town |
| Rural AR | Forrest City | 14,000 | Low | Low ($40k) | Poor (GreatSchools 1-4) | High | 0.90 | Prison, agriculture |
To view all table columns, please open this table on a laptop or desktop screen.
Citizens: Income and Education
- MSA median household income: $47,344; mean $65,463; per capita $24,675 (2013 data, adjusted trends similar).
- Income disparity high: East suburbs (Germantown/Collierville) exceed $130k median; central Memphis and AR/MS rural under $50k.
- 47.3% African American, 45.2% non-Hispanic White, 5.1% Hispanic; only major MSA with African American plurality.
- Median age 36.7; 25% under 18, 16% over 65.
- Educational attainment lags: 28% bachelor's or higher MSA-wide; suburbs like Collierville near 60%, Memphis city under 20%.
- University of Memphis and health science centers boost higher ed, but public schools vary widely by suburb.
Key Economic Sectors
- Logistics/transport: FedEx HQ (35,000 jobs), world's busiest cargo airport, major UPS hub.
- Healthcare: Methodist Le Bonheur, Baptist Memorial, St. Jude (3,400+ hospital beds).
- Manufacturing: AutoZone, International Paper (Fortune 500 HQs), Nike, Whirlpool plants.
- Government/education: 50,000+ jobs in schools, local govt; University of Memphis.
- Retail/hospitality: Walmart, Kroger, casinos in West Memphis; tourism (Beale St, Graceland).
- Agriculture/prison in rural AR/MS areas.
Housing Buying Market: Supply Drivers
- Zoning openness varies: East TN suburbs permissive for single-family; Memphis city restrictive with historic overlays.
- Regulatory strictness medium: Shelby Co permits faster than MS counties; flood zones in AR/MS add hurdles.
- Construction workforce cost low: Non-union labor, median builder wage $50k vs national $65k.
- New supply limited: 5,000-7,000 units/year MSA-wide; apartment market 100,000+ units in 501 properties.
- Land availability high in MS/AR suburbs, low in East TN due to sprawl limits.
- Impact fees moderate: $5k-10k per lot in suburbs.
Housing Buying Market: Demand Drivers
- Net migration flat to negative: -0.8% pop decline 2020-2023; outflows to Nashville/Atlanta.
- Growing industries: Logistics (FedEx expansion), manufacturing (auto/electronics plants in Olive Branch).
- Declining: Legacy retail in central Memphis; rural AR agribusiness stagnant.
- Suburban demand strong from remote workers seeking low cost vs Nashville (Memphis median home $220k vs $450k).
- MS/AR appeal: Lower property taxes draw TN commuters.
- Inventory tight: 3-4 months supply, favoring sellers.
Key Challenges on the Housing Market
- High crime in core Memphis suppresses central demand, elevates insurance costs 20-30% above national.
- Population stagnation limits broad appreciation; aging housing stock needs $10B+ upgrades.
- School quality divides market: Suburbs thrive, city struggles with 50% dropout risk zones.
- Flood/ storm risks in MS River areas raise premiums, deter builds.
- Affordability strain: 30% rent-burdened households; rising rates hit low-income buyers.
- Supply chain lags post-COVID slow new construction 15-20%.
- Racial/ income segregation fragments market cohesion.
Investment Potential Differences Between Geographic Areas/Regions
| Area | Appreciation Potential | Risk | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Suburbs (Collierville, Germantown) | High | Low | Strong schools, low crime, affluent in-migration, limited supply |
| East Suburbs (Bartlett, Arlington) | Medium-High | Low-Medium | Family growth, highway access, new builds |
| West MS (Olive Branch, Hernando) | Medium-High | Medium | Industrial jobs, tax savings, commuter demand |
| North Suburbs (Millington, Atoka) | Medium | Medium | Affordable expansion, military ties |
| Central Memphis | Low-Medium | High | Revitalization upside vs crime, poverty drag |
| West AR (West Memphis) | Low | High | Decline risks, high crime, weak schools |
| Rural South (Forrest City, Holly Springs) | Low | Very High | Pop loss, no growth drivers |
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