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Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	Change	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$245	$260	$261	$262		7%	6.1%	0.4%	0.4%
Active Listing Count	6,691	6,971	8,170	10,850		223.2%	4.2%	17.2%	32.8%
Median Days on Market	48	44	66	61		71.4%	-8.3%	50%	-7.6%
Share of listings with price increase	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.5%
Share of listings with price decrease	17.5%	20.5%	19.3%	18.9%

* last available value


Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Geography and key cities in Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA

• The MSA covers most of north-central Tennessee, with about 2.1–2.15M residents and roughly 6,300+ square miles.
• Core growth corridor: I-65 / I-24 / I-40 triangle connecting Nashville, Murfreesboro, Franklin, Hendersonville, Mt. Juliet, Lebanon, Spring Hill.
• Fastest-growing suburban counties: Williamson (Franklin/Brentwood/Spring Hill), Rutherford (Murfreesboro/Smyrna), Wilson (Mt. Juliet/Lebanon), Sumner (Hendersonville/Gallatin).
• Outer/rural counties: Cheatham, Dickson, Robertson, Maury, Macon, Hickman, Smith, Cannon, Trousdale, etc., generally lower density and cost, more mixed infrastructure and services.

Area	City/Town	Population (approx.)	Density (people/sq mi, approx.)	Income level	Quality of schools (GreatSchools typical range)	Crime level (relative in MSA)	Property tax (effective rate, approx.)	Personal income tax	Comments
Core urban	Nashville (Davidson Co.)	≈715K city / ≈780K county	≈1,350 city	Moderate–high, big spread by neighborhood	≈2–9; very mixed by zone	Higher violent and property crime than suburbs	≈0.65–0.75% effective	None local	Music/entertainment hub, strong job base, gentrifying intown areas, older stock plus rapid infill
Inner suburb	Franklin (Williamson Co.)	≈87K city / ≈250K county	≈2,000	High (one of TN’s highest-income areas)	≈7–10; Williamson often top-ranked in state	Low	≈0.55–0.65%	None local	Corporate offices, master-planned communities, expensive SFH; strong long-term demand and constrained land
Inner suburb	Brentwood (Williamson Co.)	≈46K	≈1,700	Very high	≈8–10	Very low	≈0.55–0.65%	None local	One of the wealthiest suburbs, large lots, high barriers to entry, very limited multifamily
College / state government satellite	Murfreesboro (Rutherford Co.)	≈165K city / ≈340K county	≈2,000+	Moderate, rising	≈4–9; improving but varied	Moderate	≈0.7–0.8%	None local	Fast-growing, younger demographics, large SFH subdivision pipeline, significant student/worker rental demand
Employment / logistics suburb	Smyrna (Rutherford Co.)	≈57K	≈1,600	Moderate	≈4–8	Moderate	≈0.7–0.8%	None local	Manufacturing (Nissan) and distribution base; stable blue-collar / middle-income housing demand
Lake suburb	Hendersonville (Sumner Co.)	≈65K	≈1,700	Moderate–high	≈6–9	Low–moderate	≈0.6–0.7%	None local	Good schools, lake amenities, strong family demand; solid SFH appreciation history
East commuter suburb	Mt. Juliet (Wilson Co.)	≈43K	≈1,600	Moderate–high	≈6–9	Low	≈0.6–0.7%	None local	One of the fastest-growing suburbs, commuter rail/Interstate access, strong retail and logistics nearby
East regional hub	Lebanon (Wilson Co.)	≈43K	≈1,000–1,200	Moderate	≈4–8	Low–moderate	≈0.6–0.7%	None local	More affordable SFH, logistics and industrial growth, land still relatively available vs inner ring
South growth corridor	Spring Hill (Williamson/Maury Co.)	≈55K	≈1,500	Moderate–high	≈5–9 (by zone)	Low–moderate	≈0.55–0.7%	None local	Auto manufacturing, strong commuter base to Nashville/Franklin; heavy new construction and infrastructure lag
North commuter / exurban	Gallatin (Sumner Co.)	≈52K	≈1,200	Moderate	≈4–8	Low–moderate	≈0.6–0.7%	None local	Industrial/logistics expansion; more affordable than Hendersonville, growing appeal to price-sensitive buyers
Outer rural / small town	Dickson, Ashland City, Carthage, etc.	5K–20K each	Generally <300	Low–moderate	≈2–7	Low overall, more property-crime pockets	≈0.6–0.8%	None local	Price entry points lower, slower appreciation, some long-term upside in areas close to interstates

Citizens: income and education

• Median household income in the MSA: roughly low–mid $80Ks, above U.S. average.
• Income dispersion:
  • Highest: Williamson County (Franklin, Brentwood) and parts of Davidson (Green Hills, Belle Meade) often >$130K median household income.
  • Mid-range: Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner counties, many households $75K–$100K.
  • Lower: Outer rural counties, many households <$60K, higher share of working-class and fixed-income residents.
• Education attainment:
  • Metro-wide adults with bachelor’s or higher: solidly above national average, driven by white-collar and creative sectors.
  • Williamson County: very high 4-year degree share (well over 50% of adults in some tracts).
  • Davidson urban core: mix of highly educated professionals and lower-education service workers.
  • Outer counties: lower BA+ rates, more high school / some college; vocational skills more common.
• Demographics:
  • Median age ≈37 years; relatively young, with strong in-migration of working-age adults.
  • Sizeable student population around universities (Vanderbilt, Belmont, TSU, MTSU) creating pockets of very young, transitory residents.

Key economic sectors

• Healthcare and life sciences
  • One of the nation’s largest healthcare administration hubs (HCA, large hospital and physician practice management presence).
  • Major employers: HCA Healthcare, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Ascension Saint Thomas, etc.
  • High share of well-paid clinical and corporate roles.
• Music, entertainment, and tourism
  • Country music industry center; publishing, recording, live event production.
  • Strong tourism tied to downtown entertainment district, arenas, and events.
• Corporate HQ / business services
  • Regional and national headquarters for healthcare, logistics, finance, and retail firms.
  • Robust professional business services: accounting, legal, consulting, IT services.
• Automotive, advanced manufacturing, logistics
  • Nissan (Smyrna), GM (Spring Hill) and related suppliers.
  • Interstate crossroads with multiple distribution centers, e-commerce fulfillment, and warehouse clusters, especially along I-24, I-40, I-65.
• Tech / digital media
  • Growing but smaller than coastal tech hubs; mix of health-tech, music-tech, and SaaS firms.
  • Concentrated around downtown, Midtown, Cool Springs, and some suburban office parks.
• Education and government
  • Numerous universities and colleges plus state capital functions.

Housing buying market: supply drivers

• Zoning and land-use openness
  • Davidson County:
    • Infill multifamily allowed in several transit/urban corridors; many form-based and specific plans encourage vertical density.
    • Neighborhood opposition (NIMBY) still constrains scale in some affluent intown areas; historic overlays limit tear-downs.
  • Suburban counties (Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner):
    • Large amounts of previously rural land converted to subdivisions, especially along interstates.
    • Growing use of design standards, minimum lot sizes, and infrastructure concurrency that slow very rapid greenfield build-out.
  • Outer counties:
    • Generally permissive zoning, but weaker utilities and road capacity limit economically viable large-scale projects.
• Regulatory strictness and approvals
  • Time to entitlement:
    • Urban multifamily or mixed-use in Nashville: entitlement, community meetings, and design review can be lengthy.
    • Suburban SFH plats: more predictable but increasingly subject to traffic and school-capacity studies.
  • Stormwater and hillside regulations in hilly parts of Davidson/Williamson add cost and reduce yield on some sites.
• Construction workforce and build costs
  • Strong construction cycle in the 2010s–early 2020s created tight skilled labor market; wages are elevated relative to historical norms.
  • Material cost spikes (2021–2023) have eased somewhat but remain higher than pre-pandemic, keeping replacement cost high.
  • Urban mid/high-rise costs are substantially above suburban wood-frame garden or townhome product, limiting feasible rent/price points.
• Land availability
  • Davidson core: very limited large tracts; heavy reliance on tear-downs, assemblages, and adaptive reuse.
  • Williamson: constrained by desirability, topography, and slow-growth politics; raw land expensive and scarce in best school zones.
  • Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner: still meaningful greenfield capacity, though prime sites near interchanges largely spoken for.
  • Peripheral counties: abundant land but weaker demand and infrastructure limit quick absorption.
• Interest rates and financing
  • Higher interest rates since 2022 have slowed speculative building and some large multifamily starts but not fully stalled suburban SFH.
  • Many projects penciled at lower rates now face tighter underwriting, reducing pipeline in the urban core and near-luxury product tiers.

Housing buying market: demand drivers

• Population and migration
  • MSA population growth around 2% per year over the last decade, outpacing national average.
  • Strong positive net domestic migration, drawing households from higher-cost regions (West Coast, Northeast, Midwest).
  • In-migrants skew professional, working-age, and family-oriented, supporting both rental Class A and for-sale SFH demand.
• Job growth and sector dynamics
  • Healthcare: continues robust expansion in both clinical and corporate roles, largely recession-resilient.
  • Corporate / HQ relocations: continuing inflow of offices and back-office operations; some moderation vs peak pandemic-era announcements but trend still positive.
  • Manufacturing / logistics:
    • Automotive and advanced manufacturing in Smyrna, Spring Hill, and surrounding corridors remain strong, with incremental expansion and supplier growth.
    • Logistics and warehousing along interstates remain in demand, supporting blue-collar and middle-income household formation in suburbs.
  • Tech and digital media:
    • Grew rapidly in 2015–2022; currently slower due to national tech cycle, but baseline employment well above prior decade.
  • Tourism and entertainment:
    • Recovered from pandemic downturn; strong visitor volumes support downtown employment and short-term rental demand, though regulatory scrutiny has increased.
• Relative affordability vs other U.S. metros
  • Still cheaper than top-tier coastal markets for both renters and buyers, even after strong appreciation.
  • Affordability has deteriorated for local incomes, particularly in Williamson County and desirable Nashville neighborhoods, pushing demand outward to Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, Maury.
• Quality-of-life and lifestyle appeal
  • Strong cultural brand (music, food, sports), no state income tax, and milder winters attract migrants and retirees.
  • Suburbs with highly rated schools (Williamson, portions of Sumner/Wilson/Rutherford) particularly attractive to relocating families.
• Investor and institutional demand
  • Significant single-family rental (SFR) and build-to-rent activity during 2019–2023 concentrated in Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, Maury counties.
  • Investor demand has moderated with higher rates but remains a notable floor for some price segments.

Key challenges in the housing market

• Affordability pressure
  • Home prices and rents have grown faster than local median incomes, particularly in Williamson County and central Davidson.
  • First-time buyers face high price-to-income ratios and elevated mortgage rates, pushing more households into rental or peripheral markets.
• Infrastructure and congestion
  • Rapid growth has outpaced road, transit, and school capacity in many corridors (I-24 to Murfreesboro, I-65 south, I-40 east).
  • Commute times increasing from outer suburbs; some households re-weighting value of location vs cost, which may support denser infill over time.
• Land and construction cost inflation
  • High land prices in prime school districts and urban cores make naturally affordable new construction difficult.
  • Construction cost and labor constraints reduce feasibility of workforce housing without incentives.
• Zoning, community resistance, and policy uncertainty
  • Neighborhood opposition slows multifamily or higher-density proposals in certain suburbs and urban corridors.
  • Debates over short-term rentals, inclusionary requirements, and incentives introduce uncertainty for some investor strategies.
• Cyclical and macroeconomic risks
  • Higher mortgage rates and tighter credit conditions have cooled transaction volume and price momentum compared to 2020–2022 peaks.
  • Exposure to cyclical sectors (tourism, entertainment, some corporate relocations) could amplify downside in a prolonged recession.
• Equity and displacement concerns
  • Gentrification in historically lower-income Nashville neighborhoods leads to displacement risk and political pushback.
  • Policy responses (tax relief, zoning changes, incentives) may reshape small-scale investor opportunities over time.

Investment potential by geographic areas/regions

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
Urban core Nashville (downtown, Gulch, Midtown, Germantown)	Moderate–high (late-cycle, more volatile)	Medium–high	High-income job growth, tourism, and amenity base. Limited land, strong long-run desirability. But supply waves of Class A rentals/condos, regulatory scrutiny on STRs, and sensitivity to office market cycles.
Gentrifying Nashville neighborhoods (East Nashville, Wedgewood-Houston, Nations, Madison pockets)	High (but more selective by block)	High	Infill redevelopment, creative/food scenes, relative affordability vs prime core. Significant price volatility and policy risk (zoning, STR caps, anti-displacement measures).
West/Southwest Davidson (Belle Meade area, Green Hills, West Meade, Forest Hills)	Moderate–high (stable, long-term)	Low–medium	Affluent, supply-constrained, top-tier schools (public and private). High entry prices, low cap rates; returns skew toward preservation of capital and slow appreciation.
Williamson County (Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Thompson’s Station)	High for long-term; near-term moderate due to high base	Medium	Top schools, very high incomes, strong corporate base. Land scarcity and restrictive development keep supply tight. Affordability ceilings and high price points make downturns more noticeable in luxury segments.
Rutherford County (Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne)	High (especially for SFH and BTR)	Medium	Population and job growth outpacing metro averages, significant in-migration of families. Large supply of buildable land supports scale but may temper extreme price spikes. Traffic and school crowding plus large SFR investor presence are key risk factors.
Wilson County (Mt. Juliet, Lebanon)	High	Medium	Interstate and commuter rail access, strong retail/logistics and quality schools. Growing share of commuters and remote workers; good “value vs Williamson.” Exposure to cyclical logistics/industrial demand.
Sumner County (Hendersonville, Gallatin)	Moderate–high	Medium	Lake amenities and improving schools; popular with families trading space for commute. Industrial/logistics growth in Gallatin corridor. Some risk of overbuilding fringes if demand softens.
Maury County (Columbia, Spring Hill south)	Moderate–high (select corridors)	Medium–high	Auto manufacturing and supplier ecosystem; spillover from Williamson. More affordable entry prices, but higher exposure to industrial cycle and commuting burden to Nashville.
Outer rural/exurban counties (Dickson, Robertson, Macon, Cannon, Hickman, Trousdale, Smith)	Low–moderate (long-term) / flat (short-term)	Medium	Lower prices and taxes; appeal to buyers priced out of core and to some retirees. Weaker job base, reliance on long commutes, slower population growth in several areas. Upside concentrated near interstates and future industrial or distribution projects.
Suburban infill and townhome/BTR projects across the ring counties	High (if well-located and priced)	Medium–high	Persistent renter demand from priced-out buyers and in-migrants. Institutional competition and changing capital costs affect exit values. Local regulations on density, parking, and rentals are key variables.

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