Property Makler
Advanced analytics for residential real estate investing

Raleigh-Cary, NC housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$208	$217	$220	$220	3.5%	4.3%	1.4%	0%
Active Listing Count	3,613	2,975	3,777	5,702	228.2%	-17.7%	27%	51%
Median Days on Market	68	63	70	60	100%	-7.4%	11.1%	-14.3%
Share of listings with price increase	1.8%	2.1%	1.7%	1.6%
Share of listings with price decrease	14.2%	14%	15.8%	20.5%
Employees, thousands	718	745	758	762	4.4%	3.8%	1.7%	0.4%
Permits	927	2,090	893	2,006	-16.8%	125.5%	-57.3%	124.6%

* last available value

Home prices

Short term housing supply drivers

Long term housing demand drivers

Long term housing supply drivers

Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Raleigh‑Cary, NC MSA overview and key geographies

MSA counties: Wake County (core), Johnston County.
Principal cities: Raleigh (state capital) and Cary.
Other major municipalities: Apex, Clayton, Fuquay‑Varina, Garner, Holly Springs, Knightdale, Morrisville, Rolesville, Wake Forest, Wendell, Zebulon, Smithfield, Selma, Benson.
Population: about 1.5–1.6M in the Raleigh‑Cary metro; Raleigh itself about 500K; Cary about 185K.
Key sub‑regions:
- Inside Raleigh Beltline (ITB) – older urban core, higher density, higher prices.
- North Raleigh / Wake Forest corridor – suburban, family‑oriented, strong schools.
- West Cary – Morrisville – RTP edge – affluent tech‑oriented suburbs.
- Southwest Wake (Apex, Holly Springs, Fuquay‑Varina) – very fast‑growth, new subdivisions.
- Eastern Wake (Knightdale, Wendell, Zebulon) – more affordable, transitioning, growing quickly.
- Johnston County (Clayton, Smithfield, Selma, Benson) – exurban, more land, lower prices, strong inbound migration.

Area	City/town	Population (approx.)	Density (people/sq mi, approx.)	Income level	Quality of schools (GreatSchools range)	Crime level (relative)	Property tax (typical effective %)	Comments
Urban core	Raleigh	≈500,000	≈3,300–3,500	Medium‑high (city median household income mid‑$80Ks; large range by neighborhood)	Varies widely – roughly 2–9, strongest in North Raleigh / some magnet options	Moderate; higher in some central and southeast areas, lower in far north and northwest	≈0.95–1.15% of market value (city + county combined, neighborhood‑dependent)	Diverse housing stock; strong job access; significant infill and townhome growth.
Suburban west	Cary	≈185,000	≈3,000	High (household income well above state average; many dual‑income tech households)	Generally 7–10; among the strongest clusters in NC	Low; one of the safer large cities in the region	≈1.0% (Wake County + municipal)	Strong Asian and professional population; intense demand for SF homes and townhomes.
Suburban west	Morrisville	≈33,000	High suburban density	High	≈6–9 (mostly Wake schools feeding into high‑performing high schools)	Low‑moderate	≈1.0%	Directly adjacent to RTP and RDU; strong rental and resale demand.
Southwest Wake	Apex	≈80,000	Suburban	High	≈7–10; highly rated elementary and high schools	Low	≈1.0%	Fast‑growing subdivisions; strong family demand; limited remaining close‑in land.
Southwest Wake	Holly Springs	≈50,000	Suburban	High	≈7–10	Low	≈1.0%	Very rapid new‑construction growth; biotech and industrial investments nearby.
Southwest / south	Fuquay‑Varina	≈40,000	Suburban‑exurban	Medium‑high	≈5–9, improving with growth	Low‑moderate	≈1.0%	Transitional from small town to major bedroom community; value relative to Apex/Cary.
North Wake	Wake Forest	≈55,000	Suburban	Medium‑high	≈6–9	Low‑moderate	≈1.0%	Strong family demand; significant new SF construction, especially farther north.
East Wake	Knightdale	≈25,000	Suburban	Medium	≈4–8, improving in newer areas	Moderate	≈1.0%	Popular for more affordable newer homes with short commute to downtown Raleigh.
East Wake	Wendell	≈12,000	Town / exurban	Medium	≈3–7; newer developments feed higher‑rated schools	Moderate	≈1.0%	Master‑planned communities (e.g., Wendell Falls area) drawing Raleigh commuters.
East Wake	Zebulon	≈10,000	Town / exurban	Low‑medium	≈3–7	Moderate	≈1.0%	Historically rural; now rapid growth, especially starter‑home product.
South / exurban	Clayton (Johnston Co.)	≈33,000	Suburban‑exurban	Medium	≈4–8	Moderate	≈0.85–0.95% (lower than Wake)	Strong pharma / manufacturing presence; major destination for cost‑sensitive buyers.
Johnston Co. towns	Smithfield / Selma / Benson	5,000–15,000 each	Small‑town	Low‑medium	≈3–7, variable by specific school	Moderate	≈0.8–0.95%	More rural character; I‑95/I‑40 access; lower prices, slower but steady appreciation.

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Citizens: income and education

Income distribution:
- Metro median household income: solidly above U.S. and NC averages.
- High‑income clusters: Cary, Apex, Morrisville, West and North Raleigh, parts of Holly Springs and Wake Forest.
- Moderate‑income areas: outer Raleigh, Clayton, Knightdale, Fuquay‑Varina, Wendell, Zebulon.
- Lower‑income pockets: Southeast Raleigh, some older small towns in Johnston and eastern Wake.
Occupation mix:
- Large share of professional, scientific, technical services, information, finance, and management roles.
- Substantial healthcare, education, and government employment (state capital and major universities nearby).
- Growing presence of advanced manufacturing and life sciences workers, especially in Johnston and southern Wake.
Education attainment:
- One of the more highly educated metros in the Southeast.
- Raleigh‑Cary adult share with bachelor’s degree or higher estimated around 50%+ in core suburbs like Cary and Apex, lower but still above national average in most of Wake County.
- Johnston County and eastern Wake show lower 4‑year degree rates but meaningful growth in some commuter subdivisions.

Key economic sectors

Technology and research:
- Software, IT services, cloud and networking, analytics.
- Research Triangle Park adjacency (though officially in the Raleigh‑Durham CSA) drives tech and R&D employment for Raleigh‑Cary residents.
Life sciences and biotech:
- Pharmaceutical manufacturing, contract research organizations, biomanufacturing.
- Significant facilities in eastern Wake, Clayton area, and around RTP, supporting well‑paid blue‑ and gray‑collar roles.
Higher education and government:
- State government center in downtown Raleigh anchors public‑sector employment.
- NC State University in Raleigh; close commuting ties to UNC‑Chapel Hill and Duke.
- Large K‑12 public school systems and private/charter schools.
Healthcare:
- Major hospital systems and specialty care centers across Raleigh, Cary, Wake Forest, and Clayton corridors.
- Continued expansion of outpatient and medical office space in suburban nodes.
Advanced manufacturing / logistics:
- Food processing, pharmaceuticals, building materials, and automotive‑related manufacturing in Johnston and outer Wake.
- Logistics and warehousing growth along I‑40, I‑87/US‑64, and I‑95.
Other services:
- Financial and insurance back‑office, shared services, and corporate support centers.
- Retail, hospitality, and construction supporting rapid population growth.

Housing buying market: supply drivers

Zoning and land use:
- Raleigh:
  - Gradual move toward more missing‑middle housing (townhomes, small multi‑family) in certain corridors.
  - Still significant single‑family zoning in established neighborhoods, constraining infill SF supply.
- Suburbs (Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, Wake Forest):
  - Master‑planned communities dominate new supply; large tracts zoned for residential with pro‑growth policies but infrastructure pacing can slow approvals.
- Eastern Wake and Johnston County:
  - Generally more permissive zoning on greenfield tracts, especially for production builders.
  - Less neighborhood opposition, so lot‑delivery can be faster where utilities exist.
Regulatory strictness and timelines:
- Entitlement processes more complex inside Raleigh and in highly built‑out Cary (traffic, stormwater, neighborhood input).
- Smaller towns often have lighter processes but limited staff capacity, which can create bottlenecks on large projects.
- Environmental constraints (floodplains, watershed protection, buffers) restrict fully usable land in parts of Wake.
Construction costs and workforce:
- Labor costs:
  - Strong construction pipeline keeps trades fully employed; wages pushed up in 2021‑2024, moderating but still elevated.
  - Competition from large regional builders for framers, MEP trades, and finish carpenters.
- Materials:
  - Lumber and materials volatility has eased from pandemic peaks but remains a headwind for entry‑level price points.
Land availability:
- Core Raleigh and close‑in Cary:
  - Very constrained; redevelopment of older properties primary source of new supply.
- Southwest Wake (Apex, Holly Springs, Fuquay‑Varina), North Wake, Eastern Wake:
  - Significant remaining greenfield, but serviced land (with water/sewer) is finite and rising in price.
- Johnston County:
  - More raw land; infrastructure extension pace determines how much can be brought to market.
New construction patterns:
- Townhomes and small‑lot single‑family product increasingly common as builders adapt to price ceilings.
- Build‑to‑rent single‑family communities appearing in outer suburbs, adding rental supply but also absorbing land that could be for‑sale.
- Multifamily:
  - Strong pipeline in downtown Raleigh, North Hills, midtown, and around Cary/Morrisville employment nodes.

Housing buying market: demand drivers

Population growth and migration:
- Among the fastest‑growing large metros in the U.S. by percentage.
- Strong net in‑migration from:
  - Northeast and Mid‑Atlantic (NY/NJ/PA/DC).
  - Higher‑cost Sunbelt metros (South Florida, Atlanta, Texas metros for certain employers).
  - Rural and small‑town NC residents relocating for jobs.
- International in‑migration, especially skilled workers in tech and life sciences, with notable communities in Cary, Morrisville, and parts of North Raleigh.
Growing industries specifically affecting housing demand:
- Technology:
  - Recruitment of remote and hybrid tech workers raises demand for higher‑end SF homes and Class A rentals.
- Life sciences and biomanufacturing:
  - New plants and expansions in Johnston and Wake counties bring stable, well‑paid jobs that support mortgage qualification for new construction communities.
- Healthcare:
  - Continued system expansions fuel demand for housing close to hospital campuses and medical corridors.
- Logistics / warehousing:
  - Growth along interstate corridors supports demand in more affordable exurban towns and workforce housing segments.
- Higher education:
  - Students and faculty drive rental demand around NC State and near transit‑accessible areas into Durham/Chapel Hill, indirectly supporting investor demand.
Affordability relative to competing metros:
- Still more affordable than many coastal and large northern metros, even after recent price appreciation.
- Affordability advantage diminished vs. older local norms: entry‑level buyers face higher price and rate hurdles than pre‑2020.
Interest rates and investor activity:
- Elevated mortgage rates have slowed some discretionary move‑up demand but in‑migration keeps the market resilient.
- Institutional and large‑scale SFR investors present, particularly in outer‑suburban subdivisions, though activity has moderated from 2021 peaks.

Key challenges in the housing market

Affordability and attainable housing:
- Rapid home price growth outpaced local wage growth for many service workers.
- Limited entry‑level SF product inside Wake County; more first‑time buyers pushed to Johnston and eastern Wake.
- Rents have risen substantially, straining lower‑income households.
Supply constraints in high‑demand locations:
- Core neighborhoods (ITB Raleigh, West Raleigh, central Cary) have scarce undeveloped land.
- Neighborhood resistance to higher density slows redevelopment in some areas.
- Infrastructure capacity (roads, schools, utilities) limiting approvals or adding conditions.
Transportation and commuting:
- High car dependence and congestion on key corridors (I‑40, I‑440, US‑1/64, US‑401, NC‑55) increase the effective cost of living time‑wise.
- Public transit options still limited compared to similarly sized metros, reducing the attractiveness of some lower‑cost outlying areas for car‑free households.
Geographic inequality:
- Significant divide between high‑opportunity suburbs (Cary, Apex, parts of North Raleigh) and lower‑income, lower‑opportunity neighborhoods in Southeast Raleigh and some small towns.
- School quality and crime differentials reinforce price segmentation.
Development risk and cycle timing:
- Large master‑planned projects require big upfront infrastructure investments; shifts in rates or buyer demand mid‑build pose absorption risk.
- Potential oversupply of Class A urban apartments in select submarkets if job growth slows.

Investment potential by area / region

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
Inside‑the‑Beltline (ITB) Raleigh	High	Medium	Finite land; ongoing urbanization; walkability; proximity to state government, NC State, and job centers; strong move‑up and investor demand, but prices already high and sensitive to macro cycles.
North Raleigh	Medium‑high	Low‑medium	Established neighborhoods, good schools, lower crime, strong family appeal; room for moderate infill and renovation; not as supply‑constrained as ITB.
West Raleigh (near NC State, Blue Ridge/North Hills corridors)	High	Medium	University‑adjacent rental demand; major mixed‑use and office/retail investment; strong appeal for young professionals; some regulatory and traffic concerns.
Cary (central and west)	Medium‑high	Low‑medium	High incomes, excellent schools, limited remaining land; stable, high‑end owner‑occupant base; prices already elevated which can moderate % gains over time.
Morrisville / RTP edge	High	Medium	Proximity to RTP and RDU; strong tech and life‑science employment; continued multifamily and townhome development; cyclical risk tied to tech sector.
Apex	Medium‑high	Medium	Top‑tier schools, family demand, strong community brand; substantial new construction moderates upward pressure but long‑term fundamentals strong.
Holly Springs	High	Medium‑high	Biotech and industrial investments, large master‑planned communities; earlier‑stage suburban growth offers upside but higher exposure if job growth slows or builders over‑deliver.
Fuquay‑Varina	Medium‑high	Medium‑high	Affordability relative to Cary/Apex; strong inbound migration; heavy new construction pipeline increases oversupply risk if conditions soften.
Wake Forest	Medium‑high	Medium	Appealing suburban lifestyle, good schools, and ample new SF projects; commute times and congestion are key risk factors.
Knightdale	Medium‑high	Medium‑high	More affordable newer housing close to downtown; improving amenities; appreciation potential as east side matures, but local school and crime perceptions are still catching up.
Wendell (including master‑planned communities)	High	High	Fast‑growing planned communities attracting Raleigh commuters; significant land available; returns depend on continued in‑migration and infrastructure scaling.
Zebulon	Medium‑high	High	Transition from rural to exurban growth; MLB‑adjacent amenities (local ballpark), relatively low prices; higher cyclical and local‑economy risk.
Clayton (Johnston County)	High	Medium‑high	Major pharma/biomanufacturing employers, lower taxes and prices than Wake, substantial greenfield development; long‑term upside but subject to sector‑specific employment shocks.
Other Johnston County towns (Smithfield, Selma, Benson)	Medium	High	I‑95 and I‑40 access and lower costs support gradual growth; more dependent on regional logistics, manufacturing cycles, and highway‑oriented retail; slower appreciation but higher yield potential for rentals.
Southeast Raleigh	Medium‑high (select pockets)	High	Potential for value‑add and long‑term infill gains; subject to higher crime perceptions, school challenges, and sensitivity to macro conditions; careful block‑by‑block underwriting needed.
Downtown Raleigh and immediate adjacencies	High (long‑term)	Medium‑high	Continued office, residential, and entertainment investment; strong renter and condo demand; cyclical exposure to office trends and urban‑living preferences.

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