Property Makler
Advanced analytics for residential real estate investing

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$330	$345	$343	$339	-2.1%	4.5%	-0.6%	-1.2%
Active Listing Count	3,212	2,585	3,158	5,037	81.8%	-19.5%	22.2%	59.5%
Median Days on Market	63	52	62	58	46.5%	-17.5%	19.2%	-6.5%
Share of listings with price increase	1.2%	1.3%	1.6%	1.1%
Share of listings with price decrease	19.5%	14.1%	16%	19.1%
Employees, thousands	1,072	1,088	1,103	1,090	2.6%	1.5%	1.4%	-1.2%
Permits	608	850	997	855	-50.8%	39.8%	17.3%	-14.2%

* last available value

Home prices

Short term housing supply drivers

Long term housing demand drivers

Long term housing supply drivers

Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Core geography and composition of the Sacramento‑Roseville‑Folsom MSA

MSA definition: Metropolitan area centered on Sacramento, including most of Sacramento County and parts/all of Placer, El Dorado, Yolo and Sutter counties (per current OMB definition).
Total population: About 2.4–2.5 million residents; land area roughly 5,000 square miles; overall density around 450–500 people per square mile.
Key urban sub‑markets: City of Sacramento (urban core), Roseville/Rocklin/Lincoln corridor (Placer County suburbs), Folsom/El Dorado Hills (eastern foothill suburbs), Elk Grove (southern suburb), West Sacramento/Davis/Woodland (Yolo County), plus smaller communities in Sutter County.
Geographic structure:
- Central urban basin along the American and Sacramento rivers.
- Suburban and exurban growth along I‑80 and Highway 50 toward Placer and El Dorado counties.
- Productive agricultural areas in Yolo and Sutter counties (Sacramento Valley).
- Foothill communities with higher elevation, lower density and strong school districts (eastern Placer and El Dorado counties).

Area	City/town	Population (approx.)	Density (people/sq mi, approx.)	Income level	Quality of schools (GreatSchools range)	Crime level	Property tax (effective % range)	Personal income tax (local)	Comments
Central core	Sacramento (city)	≈ 535,000	≈ 5,300	Mixed – wide spread from low to upper‑middle	Varies widely, roughly 2–9	Higher than suburbs; pockets of both high and moderate crime	≈ 1.0–1.3	None	State‑government hub; older housing stock plus infill/mixed‑use; strongest transit access.
South suburban	Elk Grove	≈ 180,000	≈ 4,500	Middle to upper‑middle	Many schools 6–9; some 4–5 in older zones	Lower than Sacramento; mostly moderate	≈ 1.0–1.25	None	Family‑oriented subdivisions; strong single‑family demand; room for new tracts southward.
NE suburban	Roseville	≈ 155,000	≈ 3,500	Upper‑middle	Many schools 7–9	Relatively low; typical suburban	≈ 1.0–1.2	None	Major retail/office hub; strong new construction pipeline; higher price point.
NE corridor	Rocklin	≈ 75,000	≈ 3,800	Upper‑middle to high	Many schools 8–10	Low	≈ 1.0–1.2	None	High‑performing schools; newer subdivisions; strong family demand.
NE corridor	Lincoln	≈ 55,000	≈ 1,500	Middle to upper‑middle	Mostly 6–8	Low to moderate	≈ 1.1–1.3	None	Active‑adult communities; substantial greenfield land for future build‑out.
East (Highway 50)	Folsom	≈ 90,000	≈ 3,200	High	Many schools 8–10	Low	≈ 1.0–1.2	None	Tech/office presence; lakes and recreation; very strong school‑driven housing demand.
East foothills	El Dorado Hills (unincorporated)	≈ 50,000	Low to moderate	High	Many schools 8–10	Very low	≈ 1.0–1.2	None	High‑end suburban/foothill product; limited inventory; strong executive segment.
West of river	West Sacramento	≈ 55,000	≈ 2,600	Middle	Roughly 4–8	Moderate	≈ 1.0–1.3	None	Riverfront redevelopment; industrial and logistics; close to downtown core.
West/Yolo	Davis	≈ 70,000	≈ 7,000 (student‑heavy)	Middle to upper‑middle	Many schools 7–9	Low	≈ 1.0–1.2	None	UC Davis anchor; constrained growth; expensive small‑lot and rental market.
West/Yolo	Woodland	≈ 65,000	≈ 3,500	Middle	Roughly 4–8	Moderate	≈ 1.0–1.3	None	Ag‑linked economy; more affordable single‑family product than inner suburbs.
North valley	Yuba City (edge of commuting shed)	≈ 70,000	≈ 4,000	Lower‑middle to middle	Mostly 3–7	Moderate	≈ 1.0–1.3	None	More distant, value‑oriented; some out‑commuters to Sacramento; sensitive to ag cycles.

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Citizens: income and education profile

Household income:
- Median household income in the MSA sits modestly above the U.S. average, with large gaps between lower‑income city neighborhoods and high‑income suburbs like Folsom, Rocklin and El Dorado Hills.
- Placer and El Dorado counties have substantially higher household incomes than Sacramento and Yolo counties, driven by professional/managerial households and two‑earner families.
- Income inequality is visible in the urban core (older housing, higher poverty) versus newer suburbs (higher incomes, newer stock).
Education:
- Share of adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher in the MSA is modestly above national average, but highly uneven by sub‑area.
- Davis, Folsom, and the Roseville/Rocklin area have very high educational attainment (large shares of residents with 4‑year and graduate degrees).
- Inner Sacramento, parts of south Sacramento and some north valley communities have lower completion rates and higher shares with only high‑school or some college.
- Two major universities (UC Davis, Sacramento State) plus multiple community colleges create a large student and early‑career renter population.

Key economic sectors

Government and public administration
- Largest single anchor: State of California government, regional federal offices and county/city agencies concentrated in downtown Sacramento and nearby nodes.
- Provides stable, mid‑ to high‑income employment; moderates volatility in housing demand compared with purely private‑sector metros.
Healthcare and education
- Large health systems (e.g., Sutter Health, Kaiser, UC Davis Health, Dignity) support continual growth in medical and allied professions.
- Higher‑education anchors: UC Davis, Sacramento State, community colleges; they generate steady rental demand and support knowledge‑economy jobs.
Technology and professional services
- Growing presence of IT, cybersecurity, data services and consulting firms, especially in Folsom and Roseville corporate parks.
- Remote workers from Bay Area tech have also shifted demand into higher‑amenity suburbs since the pandemic.
Logistics, distribution and manufacturing
- Strategic I‑5 and I‑80 crossroads with intermodal rail and port facilities; growing warehouses, fulfillment centers and food processing.
- Logistics hubs cluster in West Sacramento, south Sacramento, and along I‑80 and Highway 99 corridors.
Agriculture and food systems
- Yolo, Sutter and parts of Sacramento counties retain strong agricultural bases (row crops, orchards, rice, specialty produce).
- Ag supports associated storage, processing, and distribution, plus migrant and seasonal worker housing pressures.
Retail, tourism and services
- Regionally significant shopping (Roseville Galleria area, Folsom outlets, Arden area) with large retail employment.
- Tourism tied to the Capitol, Old Sacramento waterfront, wine regions (Amador/El Dorado), and proximity to Lake Tahoe and the Sierra Nevada.

Housing market – supply drivers

Zoning and land availability
- Suburban counties (Placer, parts of El Dorado, south Sacramento County) still have significant greenfield land for single‑family development, though infrastructure costs are rising.
- City of Sacramento has upzoned or encouraged infill in some corridors (e.g., mid‑town, transit corridors) to add multifamily product, but neighborhood opposition and design standards can slow projects.
- Davis is one of the most supply‑constrained cities due to strict growth controls and voter approval requirements on annexations, creating chronic undersupply.
- Foothill communities often have larger lots, hillside constraints and open‑space policies that keep densities low and limit rapid expansion.
Regulatory strictness and development climate
- Statewide environmental review (CEQA) adds time and legal risk for major projects, especially greenfield subdivisions and large multifamily in contested neighborhoods.
- Impact fees and infrastructure charges are material, particularly in Placer and El Dorado counties where new developments must finance schools, roads and utilities.
- Suburban jurisdictions generally more pro‑growth than core infill neighborhoods, but still face community pushback on density and affordable housing.
Construction costs and workforce
- Construction labor costs track broader California trends: significantly above national averages, with persistent skilled‑labor shortages.
- Materials inflation and higher interest rates on construction loans have slowed some multifamily and higher‑density projects.
- Large production builders remain active in Elk Grove, Roseville, Folsom and Lincoln, but smaller infill builders can struggle with financing and soft costs.
Infrastructure and environmental constraints
- Flood‑plain management (levees along the Sacramento and American rivers) imposes added engineering and insurance requirements in some low‑lying tracts.
- Water supply constraints and drought resilience planning factor into approvals, especially in foothill and outlying areas.
- Wildfire risk and new building codes increase costs in higher‑risk foothill zones of El Dorado and eastern Placer counties.

Housing market – demand drivers

Migration patterns
- Net in‑migration from the San Francisco Bay Area and coastal California over the past decade, driven by relative affordability and remote/hybrid work.
- Recent moderation in net in‑migration as home prices and interest rates have risen, but Sacramento remains cheaper than Bay Area and some Southern California metros.
- Out‑migration of some lower‑income households to farther‑out counties or other states due to rising rents and home prices.
Growing and stabilizing industries
- Government employment remains stable, supporting steady housing demand around Sacramento proper and commuter suburbs.
- Healthcare and life sciences are growing, particularly around UC Davis and major hospital campuses, increasing demand for professional rentals and ownership housing.
- Logistics expansion around West Sacramento, south Sacramento and the I‑5/I‑80 corridors draws blue‑collar and lower‑middle‑income households seeking affordable rentals and starter homes.
- Tech/professional jobs in Folsom and Roseville, plus remote workers with coastal salaries, bolster demand in high‑amenity suburbs and push up prices.
Demographic structure
- Large cohort of family‑age households (30s and 40s) fuels demand for 3‑ to 4‑bedroom single‑family homes with good schools.
- Student and young‑professional demand clusters around UC Davis, midtown/downtown Sacramento and near Sacramento State, supporting multifamily and small‑lot infill.
- Growing retiree and near‑retiree population supports active‑adult communities in Lincoln, Roseville and some foothill areas.
Affordability relative to income
- Price‑to‑income ratios have risen sharply since 2020, but remain lower than major California coastal metros, keeping the region relatively attractive for in‑state movers.
- Higher mortgage rates have cooled transaction volumes but also reduced inventory, keeping resale supply tight and supporting prices in desirable sub‑markets.

Key challenges in the housing market

Affordability and cost burden
- Rapid home price appreciation during the 2020–2022 period outpaced wage growth, increasing cost burdens for renters and first‑time buyers.
- Rental vacancy is relatively low in many neighborhoods; rent growth has slowed but remains a challenge for lower‑income households.
Supply constraints in high‑demand nodes
- Severe undersupply in Davis, Folsom, Rocklin and El Dorado Hills due to limited land, growth controls or strong neighborhood resistance to added density.
- Low resale inventory across most suburbs as owners are locked into below‑market mortgage rates and reluctant to move.
Regulatory and political friction
- CEQA litigation risk and lengthy entitlement timelines slow large projects, raising financing and holding costs.
- Local resistance to multifamily, supportive housing and higher density around transit corridors limits production of lower‑cost units.
Infrastructure and climate risk
- Flood risk in certain low‑lying areas increases insurance and mitigation costs; climate‑driven insurance market tightening is an emerging concern.
- Wildfire risk and smoke in foothill and rural areas may temper long‑term demand for some exurban developments.
Equity and displacement
- Gentrification pressures in central neighborhoods (Oak Park, Midtown‑adjacent areas, North Sacramento) can displace long‑time renters.
- Shortage of deeply affordable housing leads to rising homelessness, with visible encampments affecting neighborhood perceptions and local policy responses.

Investment potential by geographic area/region

Qualitative outlook below focuses on relative appreciation potential over the medium term (5–10 years), balancing price growth prospects and risk.

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
Folsom	High	Moderate	High incomes; top‑tier schools; strong amenities; limited infill land; tech/office base; persistent family demand despite high prices.
El Dorado Hills and nearby foothill suburbs	High	Moderate to high	Executive‑level housing; scenic setting; great schools; low crime; constrained supply; some wildfire and insurance risk.
Roseville and Rocklin	High	Moderate	Regional retail/office center; strong schools; robust new construction; in‑migration from Bay Area; good freeway access.
Lincoln	Moderate to high	Moderate	Lower entry prices than inner Placer suburbs; large future land supply; strong active‑adult demand; somewhat cyclical due to new‑build volume.
Elk Grove	Moderate to high	Moderate	Growing family‑oriented suburb; adequate land supply; improving retail and employment base; demand supported by households moving up from Sacramento.
City of Sacramento – Midtown/downtown and close‑in neighborhoods	Moderate to high	Moderate to high	Urban amenities; transit; cultural and food scene; infill and ADU potential; higher regulatory and political risk; sensitivity to crime and homelessness trends.
City of Sacramento – outer and lower‑income neighborhoods	Moderate	High	Lower price points and higher yields possible; policy and code‑enforcement risk; crime perception; tenant‑rights regulation impacts landlord strategies.
West Sacramento	Moderate to high	Moderate	Riverfront redevelopment; logistics and industrial jobs; proximity to downtown; some flood‑risk and infrastructure constraints.
Davis	High (for long‑term hold)	Moderate	UC Davis anchor; chronic undersupply due to growth limits; strong student and faculty demand; high entry price; political resistance to new housing.
Woodland and Yolo valley communities	Moderate	Moderate	More affordable; linked to ag and logistics; slower but steady appreciation; some exposure to ag income volatility.
North valley / Sutter and Yuba commuting belt	Low to moderate	Moderate to high	Value‑oriented; longer commute times; stronger link to agricultural and local service employment; may lag core suburbs in appreciation.

To view all table columns, please open this table on a laptop or desktop screen.

Overall analytical perspective

Sacramento‑Roseville‑Folsom MSA combines a stable government‑driven core with rapidly growing, high‑income suburbs, producing relatively resilient housing demand.
Supply is most constrained in high‑school‑quality, high‑income nodes (Folsom, El Dorado Hills, Roseville, Rocklin, Davis), where long‑term appreciation potential is strongest.
More peripheral and ag‑oriented communities offer affordability and cash‑flow opportunities but face slower appreciation and higher economic cyclicality.
Regulatory friction, infrastructure constraints and affordability pressures are the main medium‑term risks, partially offset by continued in‑migration and diversified employment.