Property Makler
Advanced analytics for residential real estate investing

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$184	$183	$180	$175	2.8%	-0.5%	-1.6%	-2.8%
Active Listing Count	7,848	9,489	11,020	13,452	99.5%	20.9%	16.1%	22.1%
Median Days on Market	67	68	75	74	39.6%	1.5%	10.3%	-1.3%
Share of listings with price increase	3.3%	2%	1.8%	1.9%
Share of listings with price decrease	15.7%	22.5%	23.7%	24.6%
Employees, thousands	1,150	1,179	1,202	1,208	4.3%	2.5%	2%	0.5%
Permits	1,497	606	1,308	663	33.5%	-59.5%	115.8%	-49.3%

* last available value

Home prices

Short term housing supply drivers

Long term housing demand drivers

Long term housing supply drivers

Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

San Antonio–New Braunfels, TX MSA overview

Total MSA population about 2.7–2.8 million, covering eight counties in south‑central Texas (Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Atascosa, Bandera, Medina, Wilson).
Anchored by the city of San Antonio (principal city) and New Braunfels (fast‑growing secondary hub).
Geography spans urban core around downtown San Antonio, fast‑growing I‑35 corridor to Austin (New Braunfels, Schertz, Cibolo), Hill Country suburbs to the northwest (Boerne, Kendall County), and more rural/small‑town areas to the south and west.
Overall MSA density roughly 150–370 people per square mile (urban core much higher, peri‑urban and rural counties much lower).

Key cities/towns and sub‑areas

Area	City/town	Population (approx.)	Density (approx.)	Income level	Quality of schools	Crime level	Property tax (typical effective %)	Personal income tax	Comments
Urban core	San Antonio	≈1,520,000	High (3,000+ /sq mi, varies widely)	Mixed – from low to upper‑middle	Highly variable; GreatSchools often ~3–9 depending on zone	Higher than U.S. average in many inner‑city ZIPs; safer in far North/West	≈2.1–2.7%	None (no local income tax)	Large, diverse market; strong rental demand; significant neighborhood‑level variation.
I‑35 corridor	New Braunfels	≈115,000–120,000	Moderate (2,000–3,000 /sq mi)	Middle to upper‑middle	Generally good; many schools GreatSchools ~6–9	Lower than San Antonio core; still some growth‑pressure issues	≈1.8–2.2%	None	Fast‑growing Austin–San Antonio corridor city; strong new construction and family demand.
NE suburbs (Bexar/Guadalupe)	Schertz	≈44,000–45,000	Suburban (2,000–3,000 /sq mi)	Middle to upper‑middle	Above‑average; many schools GreatSchools ~6–9	Relatively low; typical safe suburb	≈2.1–2.6%	None	Bedroom community near Randolph AFB and I‑35; stable family‑oriented ownership.
NE suburbs (Guadalupe)	Cibolo	≈37,000–40,000	Suburban	Middle to upper‑middle	Generally strong; GreatSchools often ~6–9	Low	≈2.1–2.6%	None	High‑growth subdivision market; newer housing stock; strong school‑driven demand.
Comal County	Canyon Lake (CDP)	≈30,000–32,000	Low (exurban/rural)	Middle	Mixed; some schools mid‑range GreatSchools ~4–7	Generally low	≈1.7–2.1%	None	Lake/Hill Country lifestyle; second homes and STRs; lot‑driven development.
NW Hill Country gateway	Boerne / Kendall County	Boerne ≈20,000; county ≈55,000+	Low–moderate	Upper‑middle to high	Strong; many schools GreatSchools ~7–9	Low	≈1.6–2.0%	None	Affluent Hill Country suburbs; limited land and fast price appreciation.
East (Guadalupe County)	Seguin	≈38,000–40,000	Moderate	Lower‑middle to middle	Mixed; many schools GreatSchools ~3–7	Moderate	≈1.9–2.3%	None	Industrial and logistics presence; more affordable housing than I‑35 suburbs.
West/north Bexar	Converse, Live Oak, Universal City	Each ≈20,000–35,000	Suburban	Lower‑middle to middle	Varied; GreatSchools ~4–8	Moderate	≈2.1–2.7%	None	Military‑adjacent (Randolph, Lackland); strong rental demand, especially for SFRs.
South / rural fringe	Atascosa, Wilson, Medina small towns	Individual towns typically <15,000	Low	Lower to lower‑middle	Schools mostly mid‑ to lower‑range GreatSchools ~3–6	Low–moderate	≈1.6–2.2%	None	More agricultural/exurban; lower prices but slower demand.

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Citizens: income and education

Median household income in the MSA is roughly in the low‑ to mid‑$70,000s; below Austin but above many South Texas metros.
Income distribution skewed by:
- Higher incomes in North Side San Antonio, Stone Oak, Alamo Ranch, Boerne, New Braunfels, Schertz/Cibolo.
- Lower incomes in West/South/East side San Antonio and rural counties to the south and west.
Share of adults with bachelor’s degree or higher is modest but rising; still below Austin and Dallas, but higher in North Side, Comal and Kendall counties.
Military installations (Joint Base San Antonio) and large health/tech employers draw younger, college‑educated households to specific submarkets near bases and medical centers.
Large Hispanic population; bilingual workforce; household sizes slightly larger than national average, supporting strong demand for 3‑ to 4‑bedroom homes.

Key economic sectors

Military and defense
- Joint Base San Antonio (Fort Sam Houston, Lackland, Randolph) is one of the largest U.S. military complexes.
- Drives stable employment, federal spending, and consistent rental demand near bases.
Healthcare and biosciences
- Major hospital systems, medical schools, and research institutions.
- Concentrated around Medical Center area and downtown; supports higher‑income professional demand.
Tourism and hospitality
- River Walk, Alamo, SeaWorld, Six Flags, Hill Country and Guadalupe River recreation.
- Significant short‑term rental and service‑sector housing demand, especially near downtown and resort areas.
Financial services and back‑office operations
- Large insurance and financial employers (e.g., major insurers, banks, call centers).
- Often located in North Side office parks, supporting suburban homeownership.
Manufacturing, logistics, and distribution
- Corridors along I‑10, I‑35, and SH 130; warehouses, auto‑related, food processing.
- Boosts housing demand in east and south/east suburbs and Seguin/Guadalupe County.
Tech and cybersecurity (emerging)
- Cybersecurity clusters linked to military/intelligence; small but growing tech scene.
- Supports incremental income growth and demand in select urban and North Side submarkets.

Housing buying market – supply drivers

Zoning and land‑use openness
- Texas generally permissive; San Antonio allows extensive subdivision and fringe growth.
- Outlying counties (Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Atascosa) have fewer traditional zoning barriers, enabling rapid greenfield subdivision development.
- Inner‑city infill somewhat constrained by infrastructure limits and neighborhood opposition, but far less restrictive than coastal metros.
Regulatory strictness and fees
- Impact fees and subdivision standards exist but remain moderate versus many large U.S. cities.
- Stormwater, floodplain, and environmental controls around Edwards Aquifer and Hill Country can slow or reshape projects in north/northwest sectors.
Land availability
- Substantial raw land around I‑10, I‑35, and southern/western edges allows large‑scale master‑planned communities.
- Topography (canyons, hills) in Hill Country constrains straightforward subdivision, contributing to higher prices in Comal and Kendall counties.
Construction workforce and input costs
- Large regional construction labor pool; costs lower than coastal metros but rising with demand.
- Material cost volatility (post‑pandemic) has pushed new‑home prices higher, especially in high‑amenity suburbs.
New construction pipeline
- Robust single‑family building in New Braunfels, Schertz/Cibolo, far West and North San Antonio, and Seguin corridor.
- Active multifamily development around Medical Center, downtown, Pearl, and near major employment nodes.
- Subdivision lot deliveries can moderate price spikes but often lag surges in in‑migration.
Property tax and carrying cost environment
- No state or local personal income tax; governments rely heavily on property tax, keeping effective rates relatively high.
- High property taxes can cap price escalation for entry‑level buyers but remain attractive compared with high‑income‑tax states.

Housing buying market – demand drivers

Population growth and migration
- MSA population growth over 5% since 2020, with total residents around 2.7+ million.
- New Braunfels, Comal, Guadalupe, and Kendall counties among the fastest‑growing components (New Braunfels city up ~25% over four years).
- In‑migration from higher‑cost Texas metros (Austin, Houston) and out‑of‑state buyers (California and Midwest) seeking lower costs and no income tax.
Growing industries
- Expansion in healthcare, logistics/distribution, and defense/cybersecurity provides stable job base.
- Tourism rebounded strongly post‑pandemic, supporting urban core and short‑term rental markets.
- Gradual growth in tech and professional services supports demand for urban infill condos/townhomes and high‑end rentals.
Household formation
- Relatively young population and larger household sizes generate sustained demand for starter and move‑up single‑family homes.
- Military rotations and student/medical residents sustain demand for smaller rentals and townhomes.
Affordability relative to peers
- Home prices and rents remain lower than Austin and many coastal markets, drawing cost‑sensitive households.
- As Austin prices rose sharply, the San Antonio–New Braunfels corridor became a “value” alternative along I‑35.
Investor activity
- Strong single‑family rental and build‑to‑rent interest in working‑ and middle‑class suburbs (far West, Northeast, Seguin).
- Short‑term rental investors active in downtown/near‑downtown San Antonio, New Braunfels, Canyon Lake, and Guadalupe River areas, moderated by local STR rules.

Key challenges in the housing market

Affordability pressure
- Home price appreciation has outpaced income growth, particularly in North Side, Comal, and Kendall counties.
- First‑time buyers squeezed by higher mortgage rates plus relatively high property taxes and insurance costs.
Infrastructure and congestion
- Heavy traffic on I‑35 and I‑10 corridors, especially between San Antonio and New Braunfels/Austin.
- Rapid greenfield development sometimes outpaces roads, schools, water/wastewater capacity.
Water and environmental constraints
- Dependence on the Edwards Aquifer and regional water resources raises long‑term supply and conservation concerns.
- Flood‑prone areas along creeks and rivers require mitigation and can limit certain development types.
Income and neighborhood disparities
- Significant gap in housing quality and safety between affluent North/West areas and parts of the inner East/South sides.
- Concentration of older housing stock and deferred maintenance in some central neighborhoods.
Regulatory and community pushback
- Growing resistance to dense infill, multifamily, and short‑term rentals in some established neighborhoods and Hill Country areas.
- Potential for tighter STR rules to affect investor returns in tourist‑driven submarkets.
Insurance and climate risk
- Rising property insurance premiums, influenced by hail, wind, and flood risk, add to ownership cost.
- Heat and drought trends could influence long‑term livability and operating costs.

Investment potential by area/region

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
North San Antonio (Stone Oak, far North, Alamo Ranch)	High	Moderate	Strong schools, higher incomes, limited prime land. Attractive to professionals, healthcare and finance employees. Prices already elevated; sensitivity to rate increases and property taxes.
Downtown / Pearl / near‑downtown urban neighborhoods	Medium–High	Moderate–High	Revitalization, tourism, cultural amenities, walkability. Strong rental and STR demand; condo/loft appreciation potential. Exposure to STR regulation, economic cycles in tourism, and localized crime concerns.
West San Antonio / far‑West suburbs	Medium–High	Moderate	Large master‑planned communities; more affordable new construction. Strong single‑family rental yields; growing retail and schools. Potential oversupply of similar product; commute and congestion risk.
I‑35 corridor – New Braunfels and environs	High	Moderate	One of the fastest‑growing cities in the U.S.; between San Antonio and Austin. Strong family and retiree demand; tourism and river recreation. Infrastructure strain, water constraints, and rising entry prices.
Schertz / Cibolo / NE suburbs	Medium–High	Moderate	Proximity to Randolph AFB and I‑35 jobs; good schools. Large supply of newer homes; strong owner‑occupier base. Appreciation may level if supply remains abundant and rates stay high.
Boerne / Kendall County (Hill Country)	High	Moderate	Affluent, limited land, strong schools and Hill Country appeal. Desirable for move‑up buyers and second homes. High absolute prices; smaller buyer pool; sensitivity to luxury cycles.
Canyon Lake / Comal County exurbs	Medium–High	Moderate–High	Lake and recreation‑driven demand; STR and second‑home potential. Benefits from New Braunfels growth and Austin‑San Antonio corridor spillover. Seasonality, STR regulation risk, and infrastructure limitations.
Seguin / East (Guadalupe County)	Medium	Moderate	Industrial/logistics growth; relative affordability. Room for new subdivisions aimed at workforce buyers. Slower appreciation historically than premium suburbs but potentially solid yield.
South and West inner San Antonio	Medium (select pockets High)	High	Lower entry prices; potential for value‑add and long‑term gentrification near employment corridors. Higher crime and weaker schools; tenant quality and turnover risk. Best suited for experienced investors comfortable with management intensity.
Rural fringe counties (Atascosa, Wilson, Medina far‑rural)	Low–Medium	Moderate	Lower land and home prices; appeal to buyers seeking acreage or manufactured housing. Slower population growth and limited high‑wage employment. Best as long‑term hold or for niche strategies (ag, land banking, MH parks).

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Overall analytical perspective

The San Antonio–New Braunfels MSA combines fast regional population growth with relatively flexible land‑use, producing steady new supply but not enough to fully offset demand in the most desirable corridors.
Investment strategies differ sharply by submarket:
- North and Hill Country suburbs: quality‑driven appreciation and long‑term holds.
- Urban core: renovation, STR, and infill opportunities with higher volatility.
- Workforce suburbs and exurbs: yield‑oriented single‑family rentals and build‑to‑rent.
- Rural fringe: land banking and niche uses rather than rapid appreciation plays.
Key variables to monitor include mortgage rates, local infrastructure investments (especially I‑35 and water), STR regulation, and the pace of growth in defense, healthcare, logistics, and tech‑adjacent sectors.