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San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	Change	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$685	$689	$644	$652		-2.6%	0.6%	-6.5%	1.2%
Active Listing Count	3,655	3,094	3,529	6,265		57%	-15.3%	14.1%	77.5%
Median Days on Market	61	58	64	42		29.8%	-4.9%	10.3%	-34.4%
Share of listings with price increase	1.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1%
Share of listings with price decrease	12.1%	10.6%	11%	12.9%
Employees, thousands	2,490	2,469	2,458	2,422		2%	-0.8%	-0.4%	-1.5%
Permits	813	434	315	354		-48.9%	-46.6%	-27.4%	12.4%

* last available value


Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Geography, composition and key subareas of the San Francisco‑Oakland‑Berkeley, CA MSA

• The San Francisco‑Oakland‑Berkeley MSA consists of five counties: San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin and San Mateo.
• Major cities: San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley, Alameda, Richmond, Concord, Walnut Creek, San Mateo, Redwood City, South San Francisco, Daly City, San Leandro, Hayward, Fremont, Pleasanton, Livermore and multiple smaller suburbs.
• Key sub‑regions:
• – San Francisco: dense urban peninsula, global tech/finance hub, very high prices.
• – Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, Alameda – diverse, transit‑oriented, strong job base.
• – Outer East Bay: Concord/Walnut Creek corridor, Tri‑Valley (Dublin–Pleasanton–Livermore) – more suburban, somewhat more affordable, many commuters.
• – North Bay (Marin): Sausalito, Mill Valley, San Rafael, Novato – affluent, low density, scenic, strong NIMBY politics.
• – Peninsula: Daly City, South San Francisco, San Mateo, Redwood City – close to SF and Silicon Valley, extremely supply‑constrained.

Area	City/town	Population (approx)	Density (people/sq.mi., approx)	Income level	Quality of schools (GreatSchools typical range)	Crime level (relative)	Property tax (effective % of value, typical)	Personal income tax	Comments
San Francisco	San Francisco	~830,000	~18,500	Very high	3–10 (wide variation by neighborhood)	High for property, moderate violent in many areas	~0.7–1.2%	None beyond state	Global job center, severely supply‑constrained, strongest long‑term price level in region.
Inner East Bay	Oakland	~425,000	~7,500	High but mixed	2–9 (top in hills/closer to Berkeley)	High (especially property and violent crime)	~1.1–1.5%	None beyond state	Large rentership share, big intra‑city spread in values, upside where safety and schools improve.
Inner East Bay	Berkeley	~121,000	~11,500	Very high	6–10 (public schools generally strong)	Moderate	~1.1–1.4%	None beyond state	Anchored by UC Berkeley; high academic and tech‑adjacent demand, constrained single‑family stock.
Inner East Bay	Alameda (city)	~79,000	~7,000	High	6–9	Low–moderate	~1.0–1.3%	None beyond state	Island character, strong neighborhood feel, very limited expansion capacity.
Inner East Bay	Richmond	~115,000	~3,900	Moderate	2–7	Historically high, improving in some tracts	~1.1–1.5%	None beyond state	Waterfront redevelopment potential, relatively affordable for the region.
Central / Outer East Bay	Concord	~130,000	~4,000	Middle	4–8	Moderate	~1.1–1.4%	None beyond state	BART‑served, key “value” market, potential from base redevelopment and infill.
Central / Outer East Bay	Walnut Creek	~71,000	~3,700	High	7–10	Low	~1.1–1.4%	None beyond state	Suburban job and retail center, strong schools, older buyers and commuters.
Tri‑Valley	Pleasanton	~80,000	~3,600	Very high	8–10	Low	~1.2–1.5%	None beyond state	One of the most desirable family suburbs, strong tech/biotech and professional jobs nearby.
Tri‑Valley	Dublin	~76,000	~4,000	High	7–10	Low	~1.2–1.5%	None beyond state	Aggressive new construction of multifamily and subdivisions, strong commute access.
Tri‑Valley	Livermore	~92,000	~3,200	High‑middle	6–9	Low	~1.2–1.5%	None beyond state	Labs and wine industry, more space, still relatively more affordable than core Peninsula/SF.
Peninsula	Daly City	~102,000	~14,000	Middle‑high	5–9	Moderate	~0.8–1.1%	None beyond state	Primary “entry” SF‑adjacent single‑family market, heavy commuter base.
Peninsula	South San Francisco	~65,000	~7,000	High‑middle	5–9	Moderate	~0.8–1.1%	None beyond state	Biotech cluster (“Biotech Bay”), strong job growth, limited land.
Peninsula	San Mateo	~105,000	~8,000	High	7–10	Low‑moderate	~0.8–1.1%	None beyond state	High demand mid‑Peninsula node, strong appreciation history, very low inventory.
Peninsula	Redwood City	~86,000	~4,500	High	6–10	Low‑moderate	~0.8–1.1%	None beyond state	Tech and life‑science tenants, major downtown infill; strong long‑term demand.
Marin / North Bay	San Rafael	~61,000	~3,500	High‑middle	6–9	Low‑moderate	~0.9–1.2%	None beyond state	County seat, gateway to more remote Marin communities, strong environmental constraints on supply.
Marin / North Bay	Novato	~55,000	~2,000	High‑middle	7–9	Low	~0.9–1.2%	None beyond state	Farther from SF, more “suburban Marin” pricing, family‑oriented.

Citizens: income and education profile

• Income distribution:
• – Median household incomes in most of the MSA are well above U.S. average, with many cities in the USD 110,000–170,000 range.
• – Very high upper‑tail incomes from tech, finance, professional services and entrepreneurship.
• – Significant inequality: pockets of lower‑income residents in Oakland, Richmond, parts of San Francisco, older industrial and inland suburbs.
• Education:
• – Region has one of the highest shares of adults with bachelor’s or higher in the U.S., especially in San Francisco, Berkeley, Oakland’s hills neighborhoods, Marin and the Peninsula.
• – Major research universities and labs (UC Berkeley, UCSF, multiple federal labs, nearby Stanford outside the MSA) attract global talent.
• – Professional / graduate degrees are over‑represented in central SF, Berkeley, Oakland‑Rockridge, Walnut Creek and much of San Mateo County.

Key economic sectors

• Technology and software:
• – Headquarters and large offices for major tech platforms, enterprise software, developer tools, fintech, cybersecurity and AI.
• Finance and venture capital:
• – Concentrated in downtown/SoMa San Francisco and parts of the Peninsula, including asset management, banking, venture capital and private equity.
• Biotech, pharma and life sciences:
• – Heavy cluster in South San Francisco, Brisbane and Peninsula corridor; spillover into East Bay (Emeryville, Berkeley, Richmond) and Mission Bay in SF.
• Higher education and research:
• – UC Berkeley, UCSF, California State East Bay, community colleges and federal labs (Lawrence Berkeley, Lawrence Livermore) anchor stable, high‑skill employment.
• Port, logistics and trade:
• – Port of Oakland is a major West Coast container port, supporting warehousing, trucking and logistics across East Bay.
• Healthcare and hospitals:
• – Major systems: Kaiser, Sutter, UCSF Health and others with large campuses in SF, Oakland, Walnut Creek, Marin and Peninsula cities.
• Tourism, hospitality and culture:
• – Strong but cyclical; heavily concentrated in San Francisco and parts of Marin and Oakland’s waterfront.

Housing buying market – supply drivers

• Zoning and land‑use constraints:
• – Large shares of land are zoned single‑family or low‑density, especially in Marin, many Peninsula cities, East Bay hills and established suburbs.
• – Strong neighborhood opposition to upzoning in high‑income areas limits new multifamily; recent state laws are pushing gradual change but local resistance remains significant.
• – Coastal zone regulations, environmental protections and open‑space preserves (hills, Bay shoreline) sharply restrict greenfield expansion.
• Regulatory strictness and approvals:
• – Among the most complex entitlement environments in the U.S.: CEQA litigation risk, lengthy public hearings, design reviews and appeals add years and substantial soft costs.
• – Inclusionary zoning, impact fees and local affordability requirements increase per‑unit cost of multifamily development.
• Construction costs and workforce:
• – Labor and materials costs are among the highest in the country due to prevailing wage, union presence, scarcity of skilled trades and high local cost of living.
• – Steep topography and older infrastructure in SF, Oakland and hillside communities add structural and seismic retrofitting costs.
• Existing housing stock and replacement:
• – Much of the housing stock is pre‑1970; seismic upgrades and energy codes increase renovation and redevelopment costs.
• – Small‑lot, rent‑controlled multifamily in SF and inner East Bay is difficult to redevelop because of tenant protections and relocation obligations.
• Recent supply trends:
• – More new multifamily around BART and Caltrain stations (Oakland, Berkeley, Walnut Creek, Dublin, San Mateo corridor) but still insufficient relative to pre‑pandemic demand and long‑term job base.
• – Office‑to‑residential conversions are being explored in downtown SF and Oakland, but economics and design challenges limit scale in the near term.

Housing buying market – demand drivers

• Migration and population shifts:
• – Region saw net out‑migration during and after the pandemic, particularly lower‑ and middle‑income households and some families seeking more space and lower taxes inland or in other states.
• – International in‑migration of high‑skill workers remains strong, especially in tech, biotech and research‑linked submarkets.
• – Net effect: modest overall population softness, but sustained or renewed demand pressure in high‑amenity, transit‑served and school‑strong areas.
• Work‑from‑home and hybrid work:
• – Remote work has reduced the premium for living immediately adjacent to downtown SF or downtown Oakland for some buyers.
• – Beneficiaries include outer East Bay and North Bay communities where larger homes and yards are available; some central high‑rise condo markets face slower absorption.
• Growing or resilient industries (demand support):
• – AI, cloud software and cybersecurity centered around SF and the Peninsula are expanding headcounts, particularly at higher income levels.
• – Biotech and life sciences on the Peninsula and in select East Bay nodes continue long‑term lab and office build‑out, supporting both rental and ownership demand.
• – Healthcare and education sectors are relatively defensive, anchoring demand in East Bay (Oakland/Berkeley/Walnut Creek), SF and Marin.
• Industries under pressure (demand drag):
• – Traditional office‑based sectors (legacy tech offices, finance and professional services) have reduced physical footprints, weakening demand for some downtown condo and luxury rental product.
• – Tourism‑linked service employment volatility particularly affects lower‑cost rental segments in SF and some East Bay zones.

Key challenges on the housing market

• Affordability crisis:
• – Home prices and rents remain among the highest in the U.S.; ownership is out of reach for many median‑income households.
• – Cost burden is severe for renters in San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley and most Peninsula and Marin cities.
• Regulatory and political friction:
• – Slow approvals and community opposition impede timely responses to housing shortages.
• – Tension between state‑level housing mandates and local governments creates planning uncertainty for developers.
• Infrastructure and transit stress:
• – Aging BART, bridges and highways, plus deferred maintenance, constrain expansion and reliability, impacting commute‑driven demand patterns.
• – Downtown transit ridership has not fully recovered, affecting adjacent real estate valuations.
• Public safety and perception issues:
• – Crime, visible homelessness and open‑air drug use in parts of SF and Oakland weigh on demand for some central neighborhoods and high‑rise condos.
• – Insurance costs and wildfire risk are growing concerns in some exurban and North Bay fringe areas.
• Interest rates and financing:
• – Higher mortgage rates compared to the 2010s suppress move‑up buying, locking in existing owners with low‑rate loans and constraining resale inventory.
• – Development financing is more expensive and harder to secure for speculative multifamily or condo towers.
• Climate and resilience:
• – Sea‑level rise and flooding risk for low‑lying Bayfront areas (parts of SF’s eastern waterfront, Oakland/Alameda shoreline, Peninsula and North Bay) could require costly mitigation.
• – Wildfire risk affects parts of the East Bay hills and some North Bay communities, influencing insurance and long‑term desirability.

Investment potential by area / region

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
San Francisco – prime neighborhoods (Noe Valley, Pacific Heights, Russian Hill, Inner Sunset, Cole Valley, etc.)	High (long‑term)	Medium	Fixed land supply, global brand, high incomes; short‑term volatility from office weakness, safety perceptions and policy risk.
San Francisco – downtown / SoMa high‑rise condo core	Low‑medium (uncertain)	High	Office vacancy, slow tourism recovery, safety/quality‑of‑life concerns; potential upside if conversions, policy and crime trends improve significantly.
Oakland – hills (Montclair, Rockridge, Crocker Highlands, Piedmont border)	High	Medium	Strong schools nearby, charming housing stock, BART access in some subareas; crime spillover and city fiscal issues are main risks.
Oakland – flatlands and central areas (Downtown, West Oakland, Fruitvale, East Oakland)	Medium (select blocks) / Low (most)	High	Relatively low buy‑in prices, potential from transit‑oriented redevelopment; high crime, school quality concerns and political risk.
Berkeley (especially North Berkeley, Elmwood, Claremont)	High	Medium	UC Berkeley anchor, strong schools, supply constraints, high educational attainment; political resistance to large new projects keeps inventory tight.
Alameda	Medium‑high	Low‑medium	Island scarcity, family‑friendly environment, reasonable commute to SF; modest new supply from base redevelopment.
Richmond – waterfront and BART‑proximate neighborhoods	Medium‑high (speculative)	High	Lower entry price, improving amenities and transit; crime, school quality and city fiscal health are key uncertainties.
Concord / Pleasant Hill corridor	Medium	Medium	BART access, relative affordability for families, potential base redevelopment in Concord; slower job growth than core tech hubs.
Walnut Creek	Medium‑high	Low‑medium	Strong retail and office core, high‑income residents, quality schools; limited raw land, growth via infill and upzoning.
Tri‑Valley (Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon just outside MSA definition line)	High	Medium	Family‑oriented, great schools, hybrid workers seeking space, ongoing new construction; risk if long‑distance commuting falls out of favor or if oversupply emerges in specific segments.
Peninsula – mid‑corridor (San Mateo, Belmont, Redwood City, Foster City)	High	Low‑medium	Extremely constrained supply, central position between SF and Silicon Valley, strong tech and biotech employment, excellent schools in many districts.
Peninsula – entry markets (Daly City, South San Francisco, Pacifica)	Medium‑high	Medium	More attainable prices than central SF or Palo Alto area, good transit; some climate (fog, sea‑level rise) and local fiscal risks.
Marin – southern communities (Sausalito, Mill Valley, Corte Madera, Larkspur)	High	Medium	Scarcity, high incomes, lifestyle and scenery; commute over Golden Gate Bridge and wildfire risk in hills are constraints.
Marin – northern (San Rafael, Novato)	Medium‑high	Low‑medium	More space and somewhat lower prices, good schools, aging population; slower job growth and longer commute to SF.
Exurban fringes and high‑risk fire zones (East Bay hills outskirts, remote North Bay)	Low‑medium	High	Attractive scenery and land, but increasing insurance costs, wildfire and evacuation risk; potential regulation tightening on new construction.

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