Property Makler
Advanced analytics for residential real estate investing

Sherman-Denison, TX housing market

Housing market indicators

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025*	2022	2023	2024	YTD
Median Listing Price per Square Feet	$191	$197	$195	$190	10.4%	3.1%	-1%	-2.6%
Active Listing Count	563	699	955	1,288	144.8%	24.2%	36.6%	34.9%
Median Days on Market	61	73	80	83	35.6%	19.7%	9.6%	3.8%
Share of listings with price increase	3%	1.3%	1.1%	0.8%
Share of listings with price decrease	13.8%	22%	21.3%	23.9%

* last available value

Home prices

Short term housing supply drivers

Long term housing demand drivers

Long term housing supply drivers

Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED

Housing market overview

Geography and included cities/towns

MSA definition: Sherman–Denison MSA is identical to Grayson County in North Texas, along the Oklahoma border and Lake Texoma.
Core cities: Sherman (county seat) and Denison (north, on Lake Texoma).
Other notable towns: Van Alstyne, Gunter, Howe, Whitesboro, Whitewright, Pottsboro, Bells, Collinsville, Tioga, Sadler, Tom Bean, smaller unincorporated areas.
Population scale: About 140k–150k residents in 2023–2024 depending on source; Fed series shows 150.5k in 2024, continuing rapid growth.
Key sub‑regions:
- US‑75 corridor: Sherman, Denison, Van Alstyne, Howe – fastest growth, most new construction.
- Lake Texoma / resort belt: Denison north, Pottsboro, rural lakefront – second‑home and short‑term rental activity.
- Southern commuter belt: Van Alstyne, Gunter, Howe – strong influence from Collin/Plano–Frisco job market.
- Western / agricultural: Whitesboro, Collinsville, Tioga, Sadler – more rural, larger tracts, slower but steady growth.

Area	City/town	Population (approx.)	Density (rough)	Income	Quality of schools (GreatSchools range)	Crime level	Property tax (%)	Personal income tax	Comments
Core urban	Sherman	~47k	Moderate urban	Middle, rising	Elementary 4–8, secondary 3–7	Moderate for region, lower than big metros	~1.8–2.2% effective	None	County seat, major job and retail center; heavy new industrial investment.
Core urban	Denison	~26k	Moderate urban	Middle, slightly below Sherman	Elementary 4–8, secondary 3–7	Moderate	~1.8–2.2%	None	Historic downtown, Lake Texoma access, medical and education hub (Grayson College).
South commuter belt	Van Alstyne	~7k–8k (city, rapidly growing)	Suburban	Higher for MSA	Many schools 7–9	Low–moderate	~2.0–2.3%	None	Strong DFW commuter base; new subdivisions and higher price points.
South commuter belt	Gunter	~3k–4k	Low–suburban	Higher, many professional households	Schools often 6–9	Low	~2.0–2.3%	None	Rural–suburban mix; land and lot development targeting northward DFW expansion.
South corridor	Howe	~3k	Small-town	Middle	Schools 5–8	Low–moderate	~2.0–2.3%	None	Affordable commuter option to Sherman and Collin County.
Lake Texoma belt	Pottsboro	~2.5k–3k (city; larger trade area)	Low–rural	Middle to upper, tourism‑influenced	Schools 6–9	Low–moderate	~1.8–2.2%	None	Lake and resort properties; short‑term rentals and second homes.
Western rural	Whitesboro	~4k–5k	Low–rural	Lower–middle	Schools 5–8	Low	~1.8–2.1%	None	Equestrian and agricultural properties; slower price growth but stable demand.
Eastern rural	Whitewright	~2k	Low–rural	Lower–middle	Schools 4–8	Low	~1.8–2.1%	None	Rural residential and small farms; some spillover from Collin/Fannin growth.
Countywide	Unincorporated / small towns	Remainder of ~150k MSA	Very low	Lower–middle, wide spread	Served by small ISDs; GreatSchools typically 4–8	Very low crime, mostly property‑related	~1.6–2.0%	None	Acreage, manufactured homes, and ranchettes; limited services but high land availability.

To view all table columns, please open this table on a laptop or desktop screen.

Citizens: income and education

Median household income: Around low‑$70k for the MSA, rising 5–6% year‑over‑year recently.
Income distribution:
- Large middle‑income segment in Sherman and Denison.
- Higher‑income clustering in Van Alstyne, Gunter, lakefront Pottsboro, some Sherman suburbs.
- Lower‑income pockets in older Sherman/Denison neighborhoods and isolated rural towns.
Education attainment:
- High school or higher: strong majority of adults.
- Bachelor’s+ share below major metros but rising, driven by in‑migrants and professional employers.
- Grayson College and Austin College support associate and bachelor‑level attainment in education, healthcare, business.
Commuting and labor market links:
- Significant share of southern residents commute to Collin County (Plano, Frisco, McKinney).
- Local employment centers expanding, especially advanced manufacturing, which pulls in regional workforce.

Key economic sectors

Advanced manufacturing:
- Large semiconductor and electronics projects under construction in the Sherman area.
- Supporting supply‑chain manufacturing and logistics moving into industrial parks along US‑75.
Healthcare:
- Regional hospitals and clinics in Sherman and Denison serving a multi‑county area.
- Healthcare is one of the steadiest local employers, adding medical and allied‑health jobs.
Education:
- Grayson College (Denison) and Austin College (Sherman) anchor post‑secondary education.
- Public school districts (Sherman ISD, Denison ISD, Van Alstyne ISD, Gunter ISD, etc.) are major public employers.
Retail, services, hospitality:
- Concentrated in Sherman’s commercial corridors and Denison’s downtown and highway strips.
- Lake Texoma tourism supports lodging, restaurants, marinas, and recreation businesses.
Agriculture and rural services:
- Livestock, hay, small grains, and equestrian businesses in western and northern Grayson County.
- Supports equipment, feed, and service providers.
Construction and trades:
- Expanding rapidly in response to industrial projects and residential subdivision growth.
- Trades labor is in high demand, affecting costs and timelines.

Housing buying market – supply drivers

Zoning and land availability:
- Generally more permissive zoning than large metros; substantial raw land on edges of Sherman, Denison, Van Alstyne, Gunter.
- Rural areas allow larger lots, manufactured housing, and ranchettes, keeping some supply flexible.
- Capacity constraints emerging along US‑75 frontage and key interchanges as prime tracts are absorbed by industrial and multifamily projects.
Regulatory environment:
- Texas has relatively fast permitting and a development‑friendly climate.
- Cities still require infrastructure commitments (roads, utilities, drainage), which can slow large subdivisions.
- Environmental and floodplain issues near creeks and Lake Texoma can limit certain tracts.
Construction workforce and costs:
- Strong competition for construction labor from Dallas–Fort Worth projects and local industrial construction.
- Per‑square‑foot building costs lower than DFW core but rising faster due to labor and materials inflation.
- Smaller builder base than major metros; capacity constrained during peak cycles.
Infrastructure:
- US‑75 expansion improves north–south access, unlocking more residential and industrial sites.
- Utility expansion (water, sewer, power) is a main gating factor for large master‑planned communities.
New construction patterns:
- Most single‑family subdivisions cluster in Sherman’s outskirts, Van Alstyne, Gunter, and south Denison.
- Build‑to‑rent, townhomes, and small multifamily around employment centers and colleges.
- Custom and semi‑custom builds on acreage tracts in rural west and north parts of the county.

Housing buying market – demand drivers

Population growth and migration:
- MSA population has grown steadily, with acceleration since 2020 and a notable jump through 2024.
- In‑migration from the Dallas–Fort Worth metro seeking lower prices and more land.
- Some in‑migration from out‑of‑state, especially higher‑tax and more expensive states.
Industrial and manufacturing expansion:
- Large semiconductor and related plants under construction are bringing thousands of direct and indirect jobs.
- High‑wage technical and engineering positions drive demand for mid‑to‑upper price‑point housing.
- Construction and operations workforces support strong rental and entry‑level home demand.
Commuter housing for DFW:
- Southern Grayson (Van Alstyne, Gunter, Howe) is effectively an outer ring of Dallas–Collin employment center.
- Buyers trade longer commutes for larger lots and lower prices than Plano/Frisco.
Retirees and lifestyle movers:
- Lake Texoma and low taxes attract retirees and second‑home buyers.
- Demand for one‑story homes, low‑maintenance communities, and lakefront or near‑lake properties.
Student and faculty demand:
- Austin College and Grayson College create modest but stable rental housing demand near Sherman and Denison.
Affordability relative to big metros:
- Homes generally more affordable than Dallas, Plano, and Frisco, despite recent price appreciation.
- This affordability gap underpins continued relocation demand as long as job growth persists.

Key challenges in the housing market

Rapid price appreciation and affordability:
- Home prices have risen faster than local historical norms due to industrial announcements and DFW spillover.
- First‑time buyers and existing local wage earners in service and manufacturing can be squeezed.
Supply pacing vs infrastructure:
- Water, sewer, and road capacity must catch up with projected population and job growth.
- Some sub‑markets risk under‑supply in the short term, putting pressure on rents and for‑sale prices.
Concentration risk around mega‑projects:
- Housing demand and investor interest heavily tied to a few large manufacturing projects.
- Any delay or downsizing of these employers could soften absorption and rent growth.
Labor and materials constraints:
- Competition for skilled trades and construction materials from DFW and local industrial sites can delay residential projects.
Local opposition and growth management:
- Some neighborhoods resist higher density or rental developments, especially near established single‑family areas.
- Balancing growth, traffic, and school capacity in small towns is a continuing political issue.
Transportation and commute times:
- US‑75 improvements help, but more traffic from both industrial workers and DFW commuters can lengthen drive times.

Investment potential by geographic area/region

Area	Appreciation potential	Risk	Key drivers
Sherman (city, especially near US‑75 and industrial corridors)	High	Medium	Large industrial/semiconductor projects, rising incomes, infill and subdivision growth; risk tied to concentration in a few employers and potential overbuilding in some sub‑markets.
Denison (city, including downtown and Lake Texoma access)	Moderate to High	Medium	Tourism, healthcare, education, historic‑district revitalization; excellent upside near Lake Texoma but more cyclical second‑home and STR exposure.
Van Alstyne (south Grayson)	High	Medium	DFW commuter appeal, strong schools, limited land between Collin and Grayson counties; risk from higher starting prices and sensitivity to DFW job cycles and mortgage rates.
Gunter (southwest)	High (long‑term)	Medium to High	Emerging growth corridor, large‑lot and subdivision development; speculative land and entitlement risk, dependent on continued northward DFW expansion.
Howe and smaller south‑corridor towns	Moderate to High	Medium	Affordability, commuter access, spillover from Sherman and Collin County; some liquidity and absorption risk for larger new projects.
Pottsboro and Lake Texoma belt	High (select waterfront/near‑water)	Medium to High	Lifestyle and vacation demand, STR potential, limited true waterfront supply; exposure to discretionary spending cycles and regulatory changes affecting short‑term rentals or lake management.
Sherman and Denison older in‑town neighborhoods	Moderate	Medium	Value‑add opportunities, proximity to downtowns and jobs; rehab costs, tenant‑quality issues, and slower appreciation than new‑build suburbs in some blocks.
Western rural (Whitesboro, Collinsville, Tioga, Sadler)	Moderate (steady, land‑driven)	Low to Medium	Stable demand for acreage and agricultural/equestrian properties; slower resale velocity, less rental depth, and lower short‑term upside than growth corridors.
Eastern rural (Whitewright, small unincorporated areas)	Moderate (long‑term)	Medium	Potential spillover from Collin and Grayson growth, lower entry prices; infrastructure limits and uncertainty over future growth patterns.
Countywide small‑town and unincorporated manufactured‑home areas	Low to Moderate	Medium	Cash‑flow potential at low basis; higher vacancy and management risk, limited appreciation if not near major corridors or lake amenities.