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Dubai, UAE US |
Dubai US Market Research
Tucson, AZ housing market
Housing market indicators
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025* | Change | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Listing Price per Square Feet | $218 | $228 | $229 | $226 | 7.9% | 4.6% | 0.4% | -1.3% | |
| Active Listing Count | 2,596 | 2,347 | 3,354 | 3,987 | 70.8% | -9.6% | 42.9% | 18.9% | |
| Median Days on Market | 60 | 51 | 63 | 58 | 36.4% | -15% | 23.5% | -7.9% | |
| Share of listings with price increase | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2% | 1.2% | |||||
| Share of listings with price decrease | 16.2% | 16.5% | 19.5% | 21.7% | |||||
* last available value
Home prices
Short term housing supply drivers
Long term housing demand drivers
Long term housing supply drivers
Note: 12M MA - 12 months moving average, Permits - New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits. Source: FRED
Housing market overview
Tucson, AZ MSA Overview and Included Areas
- The Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) primarily encompasses Pima County, with a 2024 population of approximately 1,086,634 and modest growth of 0.6%.
- Key cities and towns include Tucson (core city, pop. ~554,000), South Tucson (small enclave), Marana, Oro Valley, Sahuarita, and Green Valley.
- Geographic regions: Central Tucson (urban core), Northwest (Oro Valley/Marana - suburbs), Southeast (Sahuarita), South (Green Valley - retiree area).
| Area | City/town | Population | Density | Income (high/low/...) | Quality of Schools (GreatSchools rating range) | Crime level | Property tax (%) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | Tucson | 554,013 | High (urban) | Low-median | 4-8 | High | 0.8% | University area, diverse, affordable but rising costs |
| Northwest | Oro Valley | ~50,000 | Medium | High | 7-10 | Low | 0.9% | Family-friendly suburbs, tech growth |
| Northwest | Marana | ~60,000 | Low-medium | Median-high | 6-9 | Low-medium | 1.0% | Rapid growth, industrial parks |
| Southeast | Sahuarita | ~35,000 | Medium | Median | 5-8 | Medium | 0.9% | New developments, commuting to Tucson |
| South | South Tucson | ~5,000 | Very high | Low | 3-6 | Very high | 0.8% | Predominantly Hispanic, economic challenges |
| South | Green Valley | ~20,000 | Low | Median (retirees) | N/A (few schools) | Low | 0.7% | Retirement community, golf courses |
To view all table columns, please open this table on a laptop or desktop screen.
Citizens: Income and Education
- Median household income in Tucson MSA: ~$62,000, lower than AZ state average of $72,000.
- Per capita income: ~$28,000; 19% poverty rate, higher in central Tucson.
- Northwest suburbs (Oro Valley): incomes exceed $100,000 median.
- Bachelor's degree or higher: 32% overall; University of Arizona boosts rate to 40% in city core.
- Hispanic/Latino: 45% of population, often lower income/education levels.
- Non-Hispanic White: 55%, higher education/income segments.
Key Economic Sectors
- Aerospace and defense: Raytheon, Davis-Monthan AFB - 20% of jobs.
- Education and research: University of Arizona - major employer, optics/photonics hub.
- Healthcare: Banner University Medical Center, growing biotech.
- Tourism and retirement: Catalina State Park, mild climate.
- Retail and services: Dominant in urban core.
- Manufacturing/logistics: Emerging in Marana industrial areas.
Housing Buying Market: Supply Drivers
- Zoning: Moderately open in suburbs (Marana/Oro Valley allow density increases); restrictive in central Tucson historic districts.
- Regulatory strictness: Pima County permits streamline suburban builds; environmental regs (Sonoran Desert) slow projects.
- Construction workforce: Labor shortages post-pandemic; costs 10-15% above national average due to heat/skills gap.
- New supply: 5,000 units/year added, focused on single-family in outskirts; multifamily lagging.
- Land availability: Abundant in northwest/southeast, constrained centrally.
Housing Buying Market: Demand Drivers
- Net migration: Positive but slowing (0.6% growth 2024); retirees from Midwest, remote workers drawn to low costs/climate.
- Growing industries: Aerospace (RTX expansions), optics/tech at UA - adding 2,000 jobs/year.
- Declining: Traditional manufacturing outflows; pandemic remote boom tapered.
- Median home price: $323,000 (Aug 2024), +3.9% YoY; inventory low at 2.5 months.
- In-migration from CA/AZ Phoenix for affordability; out-migration of young families due to costs.
Key Challenges on the Housing Market
- Affordability: Home prices up 20% since 2020; rent median $1,400, straining 19% poverty rate.
- Inventory shortage: Slow construction vs. 1M+ metro population growth to 1.08M.
- Water scarcity: Colorado River cuts limit new developments in arid region.
- Crime/urban decay: Central Tucson high rates deter buyers.
- Interest rates: 6-7% mortgages cool demand despite job growth.
- Aging infrastructure: Older housing stock needs upgrades.
Investment Potential Differences Between Geographic Areas/Regions
| Area | Appreciation potential | Risk | Key drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest (Oro Valley/Marana) | High | Low | Tech/aerospace growth, new builds, low crime, schools |
| Central Tucson | Medium | High | UA demand, revitalization; offset by crime, density |
| Southeast (Sahuarita) | High | Medium | Suburban expansion, affordable land, family migration |
| South (Green Valley) | Low | Medium | Retiree saturation, aging population, limited jobs |
| South Tucson | Low | High | Economic distress, high crime, low incomes |
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